Perspective: Morning Commentary December 3

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 03 Dec 2025, 13:45

December 3 – Treasury yields dropped, dragging the dollar to a fresh five-week low, following the release of private-sector jobs data this morning. Stocks were modestly higher overnight and managed to remain in positive territory following the release of that data, despite some initial selling. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, so there’s no panic on Wall Street ahead of next week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve, while the dollar index trades near 98.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.48%. Crude oil prices are roughly 1% higher as they consolidate near $59 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed markets traded mixed to weaker overnight.

This morning’s ADP employment report indicated that the private sector lost 32K jobs in November, which was worse than the 20K job gain anticipated by analysts. The October number was revised to a positive 47K jobs created, up from the 42K originally reported. This morning’s ADP report suggests that the economic gains achieved in part of September, and built upon in October, started to diminish in November. That also fits with consumer survey results as well. We were coming out of the partial government shutdown in November, with a great deal of domestic and international uncertainty still before us. President Trump is taking steps to calm the waters internationally, but it’s yet to be seen whether that will be sufficient to restore certainty and confidence to the business community, as well as to the consumer.

President Trump’s special envoy visit to Moscow ended without an agreement on Tuesday, but neither side is calling yesterday’s meeting a failure. There continue to be issues of disagreement, but the talks continue. President Trump ramped up efforts to reach a peace deal in Ukraine, but it’s yet to be seen if it will bear fruit. At times President Putin shows signs of wanting an off-ramp from this costly war, while at other times he appears to be playing Trump to humor Chinese President Xi. I’ve previously outlined how Xi benefits from the war continuing in Ukraine. It keeps Putin allied with him against Trump, rather than allow Putin to consider partnering with Trump against him – none of the three trust each other. The ongoing war also keeps the United States away the rare earth minerals in Ukraine, while also focusing valuable military assets on Eastern Europe rather than the Indo-Pacific.

Commodity prices exploded higher in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine. The Black Sea is a key world export front for food and energy – primarily wheat and crude oil, but many other commodities as well. Russia and Ukraine combined are responsible for 27% of this year’s exportable wheat, while Ukraine is the world’s fourth largest exporter of corn. The bulk of Russia’s water-borne crude oil exports also pass through the Black Sea. The markets worried that this valuable supply of food and energy would be curtailed. We soon learned that both sides wanted to fight this war without interfering with these shipments, and the war premium disappeared. Occasional strikes on infrastructure would spur short covering by the funds, but eventually the markets became numb to these risks. The start of peace talks this year also escalated the war effort. Russia intensified strikes on Ukraine energy infrastructure, and Ukraine reciprocated on Russian energy infrastructure. Yet, the markets remained unconcerned, with shipping largely unaffected.

That all changed over the past week when four Russia connected tankers were attacked by drones – presumably by Ukraine. Yesterday’s tanker attack was actually carrying soybean oil. President Putin went to the airwaves in Moscow threatening to cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, while also suggesting that ships carrying commodities for countries supporting Ukraine could also be at risk. Wheat prices led corn higher as fund managers covered short positions. But even there, the response was relatively small considering the risk. The markets are still numb to the war news. The risk that the markets would respect would if the threat became great enough that shippers refused to enter the Black Sea, or insurance costs would be too high to make it feasible. We’re not there at this point, and we may not reach that point. But we’re a step closer to that point this week than we were last week, and it’s a risk that must be respected.

March corn futures ran into chart resistance near $4.50 per bushel overnight – an area that provided psychological resistance over the past several months – and sold off again. Meanwhile, the January soybean contract continues to consolidate between $11.20 and $11.40 while waiting for clarity. Both commodities are waiting for greater clarity from China on exports and from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency on the nation’s biofuel program, which will dictate the level of demand we’ll have in the coming years. Wheat prices took back yesterday’s war premium, reflecting how they’ve become numb to headline risk in the region in recent years.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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