Perspective: Morning Commentary February 17

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 17 Feb 2026, 14:26

February 17 – Stock futures again came under pressure overnight, as worries about AI disruption of the economy weighed on tech stocks as investors returned from their three-day holiday weekend. The VIX pushed above 22 to a high of 22.7 this morning, reflecting elevated nerves on the street, as the dollar index trades firmer near 97.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.04%, their lowest since late November, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.43%, their lowest since mid-October. Crude oil prices are modestly higher today after bouncing off the 200-day moving average amid elevated tensions with Iran, while the grain and oilseed sector traded mostly lower overnight.

Tensions continue to mount between the United States and Iran as President Trump moves military assets into the region seeking to push Iran into a nuclear agreement. A military threat is only a threat if the one making the threat goes through all of the motions of preparing for a strike, and that is what the United States is doing. Iran experienced a strike from the United States last summer, making this threat all the more real. Iran’s leaders know that President Trump is willing to pull the trigger. As such, the two countries are holding indirect talks in Geneva, seeking an agreement that could avert action. Iran’s foreign minister stated this morning that it has reached an understanding with the United States on the main principles, stating that there have been good developments compared to the last round of talks. He stated that the two sides will work up potential agreement documents and exchange them, while there remain some topics that still need further talks. He cautioned that this does not mean that there will soon be an agreement, but rather that the path to an agreement has started.

For its part, Iran scheduled military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz that are expected to partially shut down the Strait today. A fifth of the world’s crude oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz, along with a third of the world’s urea fertilizer, nearly a fourth of its anhydrous ammonia fertilizer, and most of the phosphate that the United States imports. As such, the Strait is a key trade route. Iran often threatened to shut down the Strait over the years, and at times has been partially successful, but it has never been successful at totally shutting it down. The United States has Naval assets in the region to help keep the 11-mile-wide passage flowing for global trade purposes. Nonetheless, the market is maintaining a degree of risk premium.

The Lunar New Year holiday continues in China this week, stretching through Monday, February 23. Many people within China will extend the holiday even further. As such, we’re not likely to hear much market-moving news out of China this week. That doesn’t mean that there will not be discussions between U.S. and China negotiators this week, but we’ll likely not hear much out of the talks if they do occur. That leaves the markets drifting somewhat as we move into the last half of February, allowing traders to focus on USDA’s Outlook Forum on Thursday and Friday of this week. There will be many headlines coming out of the event – most of which should have little to no impact on near-term supply and demand fundamentals. The media will make much of USDA’s planted acreage estimates for this year, when those estimates were merely those of economists working in their offices, with no input from farmers or the industry. If these numbers prove accurate, it will be by accident. What will matter more will be the results of USDA’s planting intention survey that it will conduct next month, with the results published on March 31. The one number coming out of the event that will matter to me will be the trend yields for corn and soybeans, as we can expect USDA to use those yields in their new-crop balance sheets in the May WASDE crop report. Everything else reported this week will change by that first May 2026-27 balance sheet release.

Another week passed without the Environmental Protection Agency sending its final biofuel regulations to the White House Office of Management and Budget for review. That’s what the industry is watching for that would start the clock ticking, anticipating public release of the regulations then another three to four weeks later. The EPA continues to state that it will release the final regulations in the first quarter of this year, but it is pushing the clock to the limit. Once released, the industry will finally know what it is dealing with – it will have some clarity. Clarity probably matters more than what the regulations actually say, although it is still our believe that this Administration wants to release regulations that are supportive to U.S. agriculture. It will take up to 60 days to get the industry geared up to full production of biomass diesel once the regulations are released, and we can assume that we’ve already lost nearly a quarter of a year of time for reaching what we anticipate being a record large increase in blending requirements. The industry can’t afford much more of a delay. Both soybean and soybean oil prices rallied in recent weeks in anticipation of the regulation release. That money flow needs to see something positive soon in order to sustain that momentum.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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