Perspective: Morning Commentary February 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 23 Feb 2026, 15:02

February 23 – Stock futures remained under pressure overnight amid ongoing uncertainty over tariff policy, and ongoing tensions with Iran in the Middle East, to go along with lingering AI fears. The VIX is trading near 20 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 97.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.06%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.47%, as the yield curve contracts. Crude oil prices are modestly higher this morning, trading at nearly seven-month highs. The grain and oilseed sector is mixed to higher due to ongoing uncertainty over tariff policy at a time when most balance sheets are more than adequately supplied.

Iran and the United States remain far apart in negotiations, sustaining fears that we will see a U.S. military strike on the nation. However, we are seeing movement this morning after Iran offered some concessions. The two nations are still far apart, but it’s a good sign that Iran started to make concessions. Iran still insists on its right to do uranium enrichment, but it offered some concessions in its nuclear program, nonetheless. The United States does not trust enrichment taking place within Iran, but it proposed allowing Iran to participate in a regional program that could be better monitored. Iran also offered the opportunity for U.S. companies to participate in its extensive oil production and export program. But the fact that prices remain at nearly seven-month highs at a time when the world is well supplied provides evidence of the risk still in place.

It’s largely believed that the Trump Administration would like to see a regime change in Iran. The current regime has been in place for nearly five decades, with an ongoing goal of destroying Israel and of destroying the United States. The possibility remains that this regime could disappear overnight at some point, ending up in Russia or elsewhere where the deposed leaders could spend their massive wealth. Yet, that doesn’t solve the problem in Iran. The resulting power vacuum would risk civil war within Iran, which leaves open the possibility of an even worse situation. The chaos could lead to an even greater collapse of the economy, including the halt of oil output, as well as fertilizer. People often forget that Iran is a significant producer of fertilizer on the world market. As such, the risk of this situation is far from being over.

The Supreme Court ruled Friday that the emergency powers act does not give the president the authority to raise revenue. The president’s vitriol reaction would suggest that he was caught by surprise by the decision, but the speed at which his administration implemented “Plan B” would suggest that he was very prepared for the decision. The soybean market immediately broke by more than 22 cents per bushel when the headline hit, but it then recovered most of that loss prior to the session close. I still see minimal impact from this decision on the Ag commodity markets. Only China had put retaliatory tariffs on U.S. Ag commodities as a result of the reciprocal tariffs, but that really didn’t change the economics. U.S. soybeans were generally more expensive than Brazilian soybeans landed at the ports in China prior to that anyway. The fact that China bought 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans this marketing year, and may buy another 8 mmt, has more to do with internal Chinese politics – as I’ve previously outlined – than it does economics.

I expect most of the other trade deals implemented over the past year to hold up. President Trump immediately levied tariffs under Section 122 that allows him to collect tariffs over the next 150 days, during which time an investigation takes place to justify the tariffs, and other means can be used to continue them. Revenues collected are expected to remain near current levels. It’s yet to be seen how, or if, the nearly $180 billion collected to date under the previous order will be refunded. That will be returned to the lower courts to decide, at which time it could be an issue for the financial markets. The new tariff avenue exempts energy imports, as well as critical minerals, fertilizers, and certain agricultural products. That should reduce the potential impact on inflation. Also exempted will be anything already covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement (USMCA).

However, the headlines surrounding the court’s decision continue to keep “uncertainty” an issue in the U.S. economy. Uncertainty keeps businesses from implementing expansion plans, and it keeps consumers from making big ticket purchases. That’s a problem for President Trump during this midterm election year. He needs to restore certainty to the economy so that businesses take advantage of the stimulus to expand in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” that took effect January 1, boosting employment and easing consumer concerns so that they take advantage of record M2 money supply to creating robust economic growth ahead of the midterm elections. President Trump’s agenda is sharply curtailed if he loses Congress in November, and that remains a significant risk to this administration, which is why I expect more steps to come to try to restore certainty in the weeks and months ahead.

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Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

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Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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