Perspective: Morning Commentary February 5

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 05 Feb 2026, 14:46

Today's Perspective Video: 45Z Guidelines Hit the Biofuel Industry; Market Implications

February 5 – Positive earnings continue to live in the shadow of AI fears this morning with stock futures trading a negative bias overnight. The VIX traded to its highest level since late November this morning as it pushed above 21, while the dollar index traded near 97.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries traded near 3.51%, after this morning’s weekly jobs data and Challenger job-cut report helped raise the prospect of more rate cuts. Crude oil prices traded 2% lower in early trade, while the grain and oilseed complex was mixed, with soybeans adding to yesterday’s gains on China sales hopes, while corn and wheat lagged behind.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits jumped to 231K in the week ending January 31, up from 209K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 212K. This pushed the four-week moving average up to 212.25K claims, up by 6K from the previous week, although it is still a historically low number. Continuing claims for the week ending January 24 rose by 25K to 1.844 million, reversing the previous week’s trend. The four-week moving average for continuing claims dropped by 14,750 to 1.851 million, which puts it at its lowest level since October 2024. Initial claims for benefits filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending January 24 totaled 568, down 230 from the previous week. Continuing claims filed by former Federal civilian workers in the week ending January 17 totaled 12,565, down 795 from the previous week. Today’s Challenger Job-Cut report revealed that firms gave notice of possible layoffs to 108,135 individuals in December, up from 35,553 in November. That doesn’t mean that they will layoff that many people, but it does say that they might do so, which reflects increased risk in December. The government will release its JOLTS report on job openings, quits and firings later this morning.

President Trump impacted the markets again on Wednesday when he posted mid-morning that he had just completed what was apparently a lengthy call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. He stated that they talked about many subjects, including trade, military, and his anticipated April visit to Beijing. Furthermore, they apparently talked about Taiwan, the Ukraine war, Iran, the possibility of China buying more energy from the United States, and the possibility of China considering purchasing more U.S. soybeans. Specifically, President Trump is asking China to purchase another 8 million metric tons (294 million bushels) of U.S. soybeans in the current year to bring this year’s total to 20 mmt (735 million bushels). Soybean futures rallied 50 cents and Brazilian farmer sales soared. He went on to say that he has a very good personal relationship with President Xi, which “is an extremely good one,” and that they both “realize how important it is to keep it that way. I believe that there will be many positive results achieved over the next three years of my Presidency having to do with President Xi, and the People’s Republic of China!”

For context, it’s important to understand that the above call took place just hours after President Xi had a lengthy video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. China reports that call focused on calming geopolitical tensions about Iran, Taiwan, and Ukraine. State media did not mention any trade promises referred to by Trump in his statement. Rather, the official account of conversations released within China emphasized Taiwan as the most important issue discussed between Xi and Trump. Xi reportedly told Trump, “China is true in word and resolute in deed; we do what we say.” Shortly after the Trump call, China’s top diplomat in Washington posted on social media that “the coming year could see a series of high-level interactions between our countries.”

Let me add a third piece now. China released the “No. 1 Document” for 2026 today – a blueprint for China’s rural and agricultural production tasks for this year. Within this top-level document, it is worth noting a shift in tone from years of emphasis on self-sufficiency to wording supporting the equal importance of participating in agricultural trade and expanding imports of products in short domestic supply. A senior official then commented after the release that farm product imports are essential to protect national food security. This is a major policy shift that is expected to lead to broader Chinese imports of agricultural products – especially from the United States – echoing Xi’s commitment to Trump. The U.S. balance sheet doesn’t have another 8 mmt of soybeans to export to China this year if the U.S. biofuel program is going to stay on track, nor does it have 25 mmt the following year without a bumper crop in 2026. As such, I don’t expect this to happen, but neither can I rule it out. Why? President Xi has serious issues at home, as reflected in the ongoing purge in the military. President Trump has serious issues ahead of the midterm elections. Both need each other’s cooperation this year more than most realize. I expect Xi to offer to buy other commodities rather than the additional soybeans that would be easier to manage. But it’s possible that Trump will insist on the soybeans, which would require the market to ration existing supplies, while displacing Brazilian demand, pressuring its basis to send non-China business to Brazil. We would also likely see imports of Brazilian soybeans into the Southeast feed market for crush if this were to happen.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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