Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 15 Apr 2026, 13:24

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Blockade Escalates Risks for Food & Energy

April 15 – Stock futures traded quietly mixed overnight, as traders ponder reports that Iran would be amiable to an extension of the ceasefire in the region amid the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, although Iran refuses to confirm those reports. President Trump states that an extension may not be needed. The VIX is trading below 18, which represents a nearly seven-week low for the “fear index.” The dollar index is trading near 98.2 this morning as it bounces off yesterday’s six-week low. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.27%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.76%. Crude oil prices are trading near $91 after setting fresh three-week lows earlier in the session. The grain and oilseed sector is mixed this morning, with wheat prices pulling back a bit overnight from yesterday’s big gains, while corn and soybean prices post modest gains.

President Trump indicates that talks with Iran could resume soon, with a deal to end the war a possible product of those talks. Trump told ABC News reporter Jonathan Karl, “I think you’re going to be watching an amazing two days ahead,” suggesting that we’ll see movement on the talks very soon. In fact, there are reports that back-channel talks continued in recent days, bringing the two sides closer together. Reuters reports that officials from Pakistan, Iran and several Gulf states also indicated that negotiations could resume in Islamabad later this week. The United States continues to seek an end to Iran’s ambition to own nuclear weapons, which means an end to its uranium enrichment program, as well as the release of existing inventories of enriched uranium. That is something that Iran has thus far refused to negotiate, although there are unconfirmed reports that Iran is starting to give on that issue. Some reports indicate that Trump has gone from Iran will “never” have a nuclear weapon to Iran will not engage in uranium enrichment for the next 20 years. Iran reportedly offered to suspend its nuclear program for three to five years. The two sides appear to agree on many other issues, but the United States is reluctant to accept Iran possessing nuclear weapons capability when it has a history of 47 years of shouting, “Death to America.”

The turning point for negotiations appears to have been when the United States walked away from the talks and promptly implemented its own blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, essentially shutting of Iran’s revenue sources. Iran had been charging high protection fees for tankers wishing to exit through the Strait, with its own oil also being essentially the only oil leaving the Persian Gulf. Iran was exporting roughly 2 million barrels per day during the war, with cash prices for that oil said to be demanding as much as $170 per barrel. Much of Iran’s oil was going to China, which likely was not paying that much, but we can assume that Iran was bringing in as much as $250 million per day to fund the war prior to the U.S. blockade, in addition to the $10 to $20 million in protection money it collected. That has all been shut off currently. Furthermore, Iran will have to start shutting down its wells once its storage fills up, creating more problems. It is now starting to feel the same pain that its neighbors felt when Iran initially shut down the Strait. That leverage led to a jumpstart of the back-channel talks, which it is believed will lead to formal negotiations restarting as well.

China doesn’t release data on the size of its reserves, but some analysts estimate its crude oil reserves to be as large as 1.3 billion barrels. It’s daily consumption is estimated to be near 16.2 million barrels per day, while it produces near 4.3 mbpd. China has thus far refused to tap into those reserves, fearing it may need them later. As a result, Chinese consumers find themselves facing the same surge in gasoline prices that many other Asian customers are experiencing, creating additional challenges for an economy already under duress due to President Trump’s tariff policy. There are those in China who believe that Trump’s recent move to block the Strait of Hormuz represented a direct move against China. Certainly much of what Trump does has direct or indirect implications for China, but this move had much more to do with shutting off the revenue source for Iran. In fact, a Chinese tanker carrying oil from another Gulf state was allowed to pass this week, after initially being stopped. Nonetheless, it adds a bit more intrigue for Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing on May 14 & 15. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia and some other Gulf states appear to be behind Trump’s blockade if it does prove effective for getting Iran to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, the blockade of Iranian oil exports takes 2 mbpd off a global market already starved for oil. That puts the global shortfall at between 14 to 15 mbpd, depending on the source. Until now, Asia and Europe have been living off supplies already in transit, or unsanctioned floating supplies that were allowed to enter the market. Those supplies are now drying up. The cash market in Aisa is more than 50% above the futures market. Freight prices are more than double normal levels in some cases, adding to the cost. The futures market doesn’t represent the energy scarcity hitting the Asian economy, and to a lesser extent, Europe’s economy. Fertilizer presents a similar story, but that’s a longer-term story. This story will have a long tail that continues after the headlines have moved on.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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