Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 16 Apr 2026, 13:48

April 16 – The S&P 500 stock index futures pushed deeper into record territory overnight as optimism over future economic growth is fueled by ongoing hopes that we may be close to a conclusion of the war with Iran, despite the many risks that remain. The VIX is trading near 18 once again this morning, reflecting easing concerns on Wall Street, while the dollar index trades near 98.2. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.28%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.76%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $92 this morning, and they are again at about a $4 discount to Brent crude oil prices. The grain and oilseed complex is mixed, with Kansas City wheat again leading that complex higher on production concerns, while corn and soybean prices are quietly mixed.

First time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 207K in the week ending April 11, down from 218K the previous week, and below the 215K expected by analysts. The four-week moving average for claims remained essentially unchanged at 209.75K. Continuing claims for the week ending April 4 totaled 1.818 million, up 31K from the previous week. However, the four-week moving average for continuing claims slipped lower by 8,250 to 1.813 million. Continuing claims remain elevated above levels where we’d like to see them, but they also remain very range bound, while weekly claims remain at historically low levels. Initial claims for unemployment benefits by former Federal civilian employees in the week ending April 4 totaled 512, down 68 from the prior week. Continuing claims by former Federal civilian employees for the week ending March 28 totaled 10,311, down another 778 from the prior week.

The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rose to 26.7 this month, up from 18.1 the previous month, and above analyst expectations of 12.0. A number above zero indicates month-on-month growth for the surveyed region. Nearly a third of the survey respondents reported an increase in general business activity this month versus the previous month, while 6% reported a decrease. More than 56% of the respondents expect an increase in activity going forward, while less than 16% expect a decrease. New orders and shipments trended higher this month, although the employment index declined, and turned negative. This mirrors the trends also seen in the New York Fed survey results reported yesterday, although that one saw growth in employment versus today’s Philadelphia survey results. The average work week index rose in both surveys. Both of the above surveys suggest a reversal of negative results in March, albeit these are just two surveys. Overall, industrial production fell 0.5% on a national basis in March, while output dropped 0.1% and capacity utilization slipped to just 75.7%, down from 76.1% in February. We’ll continue to monitor additional Fed surveys to see if the trend of improving conditions in April hold.

Russia and Ukraine continue to hit each other, receiving little notice by the media currently, as the “hot” stories are in the Middle East. But the strikes that each are making on the other’s energy and fertilizer infrastructure matter even more currently, due to loss of capacity coming from the Middle East due to the war with Iran. Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery is part of the critical Novorossiysk port infrastructure, and it is reported to be on fire today following a Ukrainian strike. It has a capacity for producing 240K barrels per day of fuel oil and diesel. Russia reports that one of its oil tankers was also attacked in its waters. All of this adds to the reductions of crude oil, diesel supplies, etc. that are currently available to a very tight global market. Those shortages are most acute in the Asian market, followed by Europe, and the effect will be most felt in the weeks ahead, even if the war in Iran were to end today – which it isn’t. Freight costs are rapidly rising due to rising fuel costs, with rising shortages being reported. Many ships are also tied up behind the Strait of Hormuz, with others refusing to risk passing through the Red Sea, choosing instead to take the longer round around Africa – adding 10 to 14 days to the length of the trip. All of this adds to the cost of freight. Shortages of jet fuel are having a similar impact, leading to the need to reduce flights to bring demand into line with the available supply, albeit at a higher cost.

Meanwhile, optimism continues to grow that the end of the Iran war may be close. A Pakistani mediator stated that there have been breakthroughs on “sticky issues” in the talks, although Iran states that the fate of its nuclear program has not yet been resolved. That has been the red line for President Trump. The president has previously said that Iran will “never” be allowed to have a nuclear weapon, although he reportedly has recently offered to restrict Iran’s ability to enrich uranium for the next 20 years. Perception is reality for Wall Street, even if that isn’t what actually represents reality. Wall Street perceives that all will be well with the economy once the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and we certainly will see much of the uncertainty relieved that is currently holding back the economy. But the long tail of the war created by energy and fertilizer shortages will continue to have an impact for many months, if not years to come, which will have a bigger impact on commodity fundamentals.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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