Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 2

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 02 Apr 2024, 12:55

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

April 2 – Dow Jones futures are indicating another decline today after a weak start to the month of April, with investors taking some profits following the run-up to record highs around the end of the first quarter. Health insurer shares are under pressure this morning after the government declined to boost payments for private medicare plans – steady Medicare Advantage rates in 2025 follow only one similar hold in the last decade, with the trade having come to expect increases in final rates. Equities traders are also starting to face the fact that interest rate cuts could be further off than consistently expected. All that being said, the benchmark DJIA remains only a few hundred points from recent record highs as well as that psychological 40k-point mark.

More economic data is on tap later this morning, including factory and durable goods orders for the month of February, following generally positive manufacturing and construction spending numbers yesterday. Small month-over-month gains are expected in those orders numbers today, more indication of a resilient economy in the face of “elevated” interest rates. The CME FedWatch tool is still indicating trade estimates for the first 25-basis-point rate cut in June or July, followed by another one or two similar reductions by the end of the calendar year, but the reality is that inflation continues to trend closer to 3% than the 2% area that the central bank is looking for.

WTI crude oil pushed above the $85 per barrel mark this morning for the first time since October; a missile strike in Syria was the latest piece of news to push crush crude higher yesterday, and Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s third-largest refiner this morning. Geopolitical premium continues to build along with the ongoing support from OPEC+ supply cuts, and the group is expected to re-affirm their policy in a review meeting scheduled for tomorrow. U.S. national average gas prices are up 16 cents from a month ago and are threatening to put a dent into consumer spending readings and hit corresponding stocks tied to them, as we head into the summer months.

The nation’s winter wheat crop is in its best shape at this point in the last five years, according to the USDA, which issued their initial spring Crop Progress Report yesterday afternoon. 56% of the crop was rated good or excellent, up from 50% g/ex in the last fall report, double last year’s figure, and tied for the second-best of the last 12 seasons. Both the other two years rated 56% g/ex or better at this point (2015/16 and 2018/19) went on to finish out the year rated a solid 60% g/ex or better. Good rains and overall precipitation continue to aid moisture supplies across the country, still with some work to do to wipe out lingering drought conditions in the heart of the Plains and Midwest, but the wet pattern continues for at least the next week. Moreover, those rains are starting to dry up a bit now for the 11-15 day forecasts, which along with above-normal temps could work out just in time for early Midwest corn planting. A lack of threat to speedy planting would only provide further fuel for the grain market bears…

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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