Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 23 Apr 2026, 13:29

April 23 – War headlines continue to be a factor influencing the commodity and equity markets, with a fresh headline this morning out of Iran speaking of the possibility of a breakthrough reversing overnight trends. That pulled stock futures off their lows, while erasing gains in many energy and food-based commodities. The VIX is trading near 19, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields of 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.30%, while yields of 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.80%. WTI crude oil prices are currently trading near $94, while Brent trades near $102. Wheat prices are again trading modestly higher on weather concerns, with at least a third of the Plains winter wheat belt expected to remain dry, while corn and soybean prices were pulled into modest losses when crude oil prices dropped this morning.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 214K in the week ending April 18, up from 208K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 210K claims. However, we only saw a slight increase in the four-week moving average, up to 210.75K claims, up from 210.0K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending April 11 total 1.821 million, up 12K from the previous week. The four-week moving average for continuing claims rose 1,250 during the week to 1.812 million. Little has changed in these numbers for many months. Few people overall are being laid off, despite the few big headline stories, but those who do lose their jobs struggle to find a new job. Nonetheless, the weekly jobless claim numbers remain at historically low levels, while the continuing claim numbers are modestly elevated.

Reports emerged this morning that Iran spoke of a possible breakthrough in negotiations with the United States over the next 24 to 36 hours, keeping the ebb and flow of emotions on Wall Street in place. The factor that seems to have had the greatest impact on Iran has not been the tremendous pounding of our U.S. military on its military sites, along with others. That certainly made it safer for U.S. servicemen in the area, once Iran’s air force and navy were eliminated, but it didn’t incentivize the Revolutionary Guard to negotiate. The Revolutionary Guard seemed content to be the “victims” in this war narrative until President Trump flipped the tables and initiated the blockade of Iranian ports. That inflicted the same pain on Iran that its shut down of the Strait of Hormuz was having on other Gulf States. That shut off Iran’s revenue source, as it had continued to export roughly 2 million barrels per day of oil, along with other products. Some estimated that revenue to be close to $500 million per day.

But that may not have been the biggest pain point for the Revolutionary Guard, as painful as it is. Depending on the source, Iran has two to six weeks of storage available to fill. Oil coming out of its wells must go into that storage if it cannot be exported. Once that storage is filled, the wells must be shut down. This is where the pain point is for Iran. Shutting down the wells can be permanently detrimental to the oil reservoir, depending on how the wells are shutdown. Improper shutdowns can permanently reduce oil production capacity. Iraq, Kuwait and Iran appear to be most vulnerable, due to the underlying geology, while Saudi Arabia is likely positioned to be the least impacted and quickest to bounce back once the Strait is opened once again. Oil revenue is the lifeblood for these Gulf State economies, and for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, it is what funds its nuclear program, as well as the proxy groups through which it carries out terrorism against Israel, the United States and others. President Trump’s blockade not only shuts off that revenue in the near-term, but it threatens to dramatically reduce it for the foreseeable future as well. Granted, that also means reduced oil supplies for China and other buyers of Iranian oil, further tightening the global balance sheet. But the greatest pain will be felt by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told reporters that the United States is seeking a trade agreement with China on broader purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities beyond soybeans. This follows a comment by President Trump several weeks ago that China showed interest in buying non-soybean row crops and other agricultural commodities. We’ve only heard the mention of more soybean purchases for the current marketing year once, and that was a Truth Social post by President Trump on February 4. We haven’t heard anything since then about soybeans.

I continue to believe that there will be a trade agreement between China and the United States. President Xi needs President Trump to ease sanctions on his economy, and President Trump needs to strengthen his voter support base ahead of the midterms. I’m skeptical that there will be meaningful quantities of old-crop soybeans in that agreement, but I do believe that there will be other Ag commodities, whether they make economic sense to China or not. My primary question is, will they negotiate down the 25 mmt of soybean purchases for next year?

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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