Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 28 Apr 2026, 13:16

April 28 – It’s Fed week on Wall Street, with the Federal Open Market Committee beginning two days of meetings to discuss monetary policy today, but today’s focus is largely on crude oil prices rising back above $100 as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, raising inflation concerns once again. Stock futures were relatively quiet overnight, trading mixed to weaker, but still just below record territory. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rallied to trade near 4.36% on those inflation fears, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.84%. WTI crude oil is trading near $100 per barrel, while Brent trades near $111 per barrel, pulling off their session highs. The grain and oilseed sector is mixed to higher, with wheat prices leading the way higher on continued deterioration of the Plains hard red winter crop due to adverse weather.

A taste of reality is settling into the crude oil market this morning, with prices pushing higher despite the lack of fresh headlines. The reality is that the futures market does not reflect the reality of the cash market, especially in Asia and parts of Europe, where actual shortages continue to mount. Cash prices in these regions have at times exceeded levels more than 50% higher than where Brent futures are trading, let alone the discounted WTI contracts. Granted, oil supplies remain near “normal” levels here in the United States, but that’s largely because the arbitrage market has not yet had the opportunity to balance those global supplies, with prices reshuffling inventories to bring them into balance around the world. That’s the job of the marketplace. So, the headlines might be slow this morning, but the mounting shortage of energy continues to build, and the markets are moving to reflect that this morning. Rising energy prices suggest elevated inflation pressures going forward, leading to rising Treasury yields.

Rising inflation pressures will no doubt be a topic of conversation when the Fed meets today and tomorrow. This will be the last meeting chaired by current Chair Jerome Powell, assuming that Kevin Warsh’s nomination continues to move forward. That appears likely now that the Justice Department dropped its investigation of Jerome Powell. I do not expect the Fed to change its interest rate policy at this meeting. This is a policy body that has a long history of leading from behind. The jobs market remains soft, although it shows signs of strengthening. But elevated inflation might challenge that. Raising interest rates to stop inflation could add to softness in the jobs market. It’s interesting to note that the Fed’s balance sheet is growing again following recent policy decisions, meaning that the central bank is adding stimulus to the economy. Kevin Warsh would likely to shrink that balance sheet, removing that stimulus from the economy that he believes creates underlying inflation pressure, which would give the Fed more freedom to lower interest rates. But he will have difficulty doing that as long as the world faces the challenges of global energy and fertilizer shortages. That is sure to frustrate President Trump, but I do not see Warsh being in a position to cut rates any time soon either.

Money flow continues to support the energy and food-based commodity sectors overall amid the inflation expectations. Those are the sectors that have shown the closest correlation to inflation over the past decade, via our StoneX commodity index tracker, available on the StoneX market intelligence portal. It’s easy to understand why energy prices would rise amid the current news focus on global shortages with the Strait of Hormuz closed. But the food-based commodity price increases are tied to both the inflation story, and to the fertilizer story. The fertilizer story is very similar to the energy story, with global supplies slashed due to the closure of the Strait, but that’s more of a long-term story, where reduced application rates – especially in developing countries – over the coming year are expected to result in lower production levels. That in turn should start to draw down global supplies of food-based commodities, which is what the market is currently trading. There may be times when money flow loses track of that story due to other headlines, but it is expected to continue to play out over the next year or two, depending on how long the Strait is closed, and on the scope of infrastructure damage that will need to be repaired.

USDA reports that 23% of the U.S. corn crop and 22% of the soybean crop were planted as of Sunday, along with 24% of the spring wheat crop. The five-year average progress for this week of the year is 19% for corn, 12% for soybeans, and 22% for spring wheat. Those numbers would suggest that planting delays overall remain minimal, but I would argue that progress in most cases is far more significant than that reflected by the survey results. I know from experience that many people who fill out these weekly surveys do so without getting out in the country to see the progress. I drove over 1,500 miles in the western Midwest last week, and I saw considerably more planting progress. Winter wheat heading progress rose to 34%, up from the five-year average of 21%. That’s typical when drought stresses the crop. That leads the crop’s survival instincts to kick in – seeking to make seed before it runs out of moisture to do so. Winter wheat condition index scores continued their decline over the past week.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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