Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 29

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 29 Apr 2026, 13:28

April 29 – Stock futures were mixed overnight as the standoff with Iran continues, and ahead of today’s anticipated policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The VIX is trading near 18, while the dollar index trades near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.88%. The energy and food-based commodities again found money flowing into them this morning as the Iranian standoff continues. WTI crude oil is trading near $104 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $115 per barrel. The grain and oilseed sector was broadly higher overnight, led again by Kansas City wheat amid ongoing weather problems in the U.S. Plains.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to address the media one last time in his position of leadership today, before stepping down next month, when Kevin Warsh is expected to take the reins. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to conclude its second day of deliberation on policy at midday today, releasing its policy statement at 2 p.m. Eastern Time, with Powell then stepping to the podium to make a final statement and to take questions at 2:30 p.m. ET. No significant change in policy is expected to emerge out of this meeting, but rather the primary focus of the press conference is expected to be on the transition of leadership. I expect Powell to remain professional in his responses, as he has always been. Yet, he will likely be peppered with questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve and how that is currently being challenged in the eyes of the press, while he will also likely receive a number of questions on whether he will step down from his position on the FOMC after his term as chairman expires, as well as his views on where policy needs to go from this point forward.

Ironically, Wall Street appears to be more focused on market fundamentals on Fed Day than it does on Fed policy, which is exactly what Kevin Warsh indicated to be his goal – to remove the central bank as the central focus of investors. As such, we can anticipate that we’ll see fewer FOMC members giving speeches on what they think the direction of policy should be – at least that is Warsh’s goal. They may not want to give up their speaking fees. We’ll also likely not see any more of the famous dot plot graphics reflecting FOMC member expectations of where interest rates are going over the next several years. Warsh prefers to see the Fed become a quiet manager of policy, removing it from its recent role of being the primary focus of the markets. I for one believe that is a good thing. I believe that Wall Street has become too obsessed with Fed policy in a way that has not been healthy.

But the Iran war will continue to be a central part of the Fed’s policy decisions, whether in public or in private. President Trump posted on Truth Social yesterday that Iran had communicated to him that it is in a “State of Collapse” and that they want him to “Open the Hormuz Strait as soon as possible, as they try to figure out their leadership situation (Which I believe they will be able to do!).” That statement initially was seen as an indication that back channel negotiations may be going well, and that President Trump may be willing to lift the U.S. blockade on Iran as a step of good faith, but there was no follow up to indicate such. In fact, Pakistan has since expressed its frustration with Iran’s slow response rate in the talks that it is trying to facilitate, suggesting that everything must go past an informal Revolutionary Guard group that appears to be running the country, with no single figure in control within the country. The Revolutionary Guard sees its best option to be to string the conflict out as long as possible, hoping that the world will turn on the United States, and hoping that the U.S. voter will do the same in the midterm elections. Meanwhile, President Trump appears to be locked in on blocking the Revolutionary Guard’s revenue to starve it financially. The Revolutionary Guard likely has just a small percent support among the people of Iran, but it holds the power because it holds the arms in the country. This is why I felt from the beginning that this will not end nice and neat like other conflicts, even if one agrees that the initial strike on Iran’s nuclear capabilities was essential.

Durable goods orders rose 0.8% on the month in March, after falling by 1.2% in February. Analysts expected a 0.5% rise. Durable good orders minus transportation rose an impressive 0.9% in March, down from an upwardly revised 1.2% in February, but still well above the expected 0.4% gains. Core capital goods orders – an indicator of business sentiment – rose a strong 3.3% on the month in March, up from an upwardly revised 1.6% in February. These are very good numbers – strongest since 2017 if you throw out the post-covid rebound. Housing starts jumped at an annualized rate of 1.502 million units in March, up from 1.356 million in February, and above analyst expectations of 1.40 million units. That followed a surge in permits for starts that showed up in the February data. The bottom line is that recent data has continued to show growth in the manufacturing sector this month, and now in the housing sector as well, despite the ongoing Iran conflict. Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also recently posted record highs on the economic data, again despite the ongoing war with Iran.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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