Perspective: Morning Commentary for April 6

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 06 Apr 2022, 13:29

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 6 – Russian artillery continues to pound Ukrainian cities as the war and human suffering continues at the hand of President Putin. Yet, Wall Street’s occupation today is on this afternoon’s scheduled release of the minutes of the Fed’s March meeting, along with contemplation of what the central bank might do when it meets again in early May. Stocks remained under pressure overnight following comments from Fed Governor Brainard, who suggested that we may see faster rate hikes, and perhaps more significantly, a much quicker and much more aggressive shrinking of the balance sheet starting as early as May. The VIX traded near 23 and the dollar index traded lower near 99.3 as yields on 10-year Treasuries spiked to a fresh three-year high near 2.67% earlier this morning. Crude oil prices are modestly higher, while the Ags traded modestly lower overnight in mostly a consolidation move.

Ukrainian farmers need a lot of things, and cash is one of those things. They need cash for survival, and they need cash for raising what crops and livestock they can in the midst of a war. One way to raise cash is to export grain currently in storage that had not yet been shipped prior to the start of the war. Ukraine was a top-five exporter prior to the war, but Russia currently has its ports blocked, or even under its control. Ninety percent of Ukraine’s grain exports passed through Odessa and Mykolaiv prior to the Russian invasion. Odessa is still in Ukrainian hands, while Mykolaiv is essentially on the fighting front currently, but Russia has blocked any exports through either port, while it seeks to gain control of all Ukrainian ports to shut off Ukraine’s ability to be engaged in international commerce. Ukraine was able to move 150K metric tons of grain via rail across its western border in February, raising that to 300K mt in March. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine wants to increase that to 1.5 million metric tons, but it will take some work on Ukraine’s infrastructure – something that is challenging in the middle of a war. Poland agreed to create a “dry port” along its border with Ukraine to help it reach its objective, but this will all take time. It will likely take years, rather than months, before Ukraine can regain its role as a top-five exporter of food and feed.

China’s markets opened again today following its Ching Ming holiday. It reported 1,383 new locally transmitted Covid cases, including 973 in Jilin province, 311 in Shanghai and the remaining 99 cases spread across 17 other regions. However, the number of new asymptomatic cases hit a fresh record high 19,089, including 16,766 in Shanghai and 1,798 in Jilin. In other words, China’s zero-tolerance policy that requires isolation, quarantine and repeated testing still has not turned the corner on this national outbreak that is hitting several major cities hard. More than 90K people have tested positive in Shanghai since March 1^st, and the numbers continue to grow at an escalating pace. The current outbreak hit China’s top economic hubs in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong.

Shanghai started another round of testing for its 28 million residents today, as it continues to operate in a virtual lockdown, even though the original two-stage lockdown was scheduled to end on Tuesday. Kunshan is a major tech-manufacturing city near Shanghai with one million residents. It went into a lockdown today due to rising Covid cases. Changchun is a city of nearly nine million residents in Jilin province that serves as a major manufacturing hub, and it is in its 27^th day of a lockdown. In fact, there are at least 390 populous provinces in China that have been labeled as a medium or high risk due to Covid that are subject to some form of lockdown. These areas are also sealed off from other areas to prevent the spread of Covid. Yet, it continues to spread. Authorities report that 75.4 million domestic tourism trips were taken during the three-day holiday period, down 26.2% year-on-year and down 32% from pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Tourism revenue totaled 18.78 billion yuan (US$2.95), down 30.9% year-on-year and down 60.8% from 2019. Fewer trips and shuttered restaurants translate into lower energy consumption, as well as lower demand for meat, and the commodities used to produce that meat.

Grain and oilseed prices pulled back overnight from recent gains as traders reassess their positions in light of recent fundamental developments. Brazil’s safrinha corn crop looks good, although the forecast is drier than desired for pollination. The U.S. planting season looks to be cool and wet for the eastern Midwest in the weeks ahead, but it’s still early. Ukraine is largely absent from the world export market. U.S. winter wheat ratings are too low, with temperatures expected to fall into the low- to mid-20s F all the way down into central Kansas on Saturday morning, with another cold shot possible around Easter weekend. Yet, wheat development is still delayed enough that little damage is expected. The Plains drought remains the greater concern, with Midwest forecasts looking more concerning into the summer now if April rains fail to break the drought. None of the above would excite the market too much if it were a “normal” year, but this year is anything but normal. Global commodities were tight before the war, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made it that much worse. As such, the market is likely to remain on edge for quite some months as this picture unfolds. The presence of inflation at 40-year highs does that much more to keep money flowing into the commodities.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Dairy
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Cocoa
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