By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist
August 12 – Today’s focus is on inflation, with the July consumer price index data out this morning. We have this, and one more month of data, ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting. Of course, headlines from the Middle East and the Black Sea wars also have an ongoing influence on the markets. Stock futures posted gains this morning, while the VIX traded just below 15. The dollar index traded near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.66%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.18%. WTI crude oil is trading near $83, while Brent trades near $88 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets rebounded from yesterday’s losses ahead of today’s highly anticipated WASDE crop report that is due out at Noon Eastern Time.
The headline consumer price index rose just 0.1% on the month in July, matching analyst expectations, albeit up from the -0.4% deflation seen in June when energy prices were falling. The headline CPI rose 3.4% on the year in July, again matching analyst expectations, but down slightly from the 3.5% posted in June. The core CPI that excludes food and energy prices rose 0.2% on the month in July, matching analyst expectations, but up from 0.0% in June. The core CPI rose 2.5% on the year in July, which again matched analyst expectations, but it was down slightly from 2.6% in June.
Energy prices continued their decline in July, led by a 2.9% monthly drop in gasoline and a 1.7% drop in fuel oil. We also saw a 0.6% monthly decline in medical care commodities in July. However, those declines were offset by a 0.7% monthly rise in natural gas prices, as well as a 0.6% rise in medical care services prices. Overall food prices rose by 0.1% on the month in July, with food consumed at home down 0.1%, while food consumed away from home rose by 0.3%. New vehicle prices were up 0.1% on the month, while used cars and trucks rose 0.4%. One of the key numbers though was a 0.1% rise in shelter costs, which helped the core inflation numbers to continue to leak lower.
Ukraine carried out a significant attack targeting Russia’s naval base at Novorossiysk today. The attack included anti-ship missiles, jet powered aerial drones and sea drones. The attack reportedly included “hundreds of drones” attacking facilities at Novo, Anapa and Gelendzhik and the Temryuk district. All are strategic locations on or near the Black Sea, but the most notable for the commodity sector is the focus on Novorossiysk, as it is also one of Russia’s major Black Sea commodity export terminals. A significant oil terminal is located there, along with grain export terminal. We’re seeing early reports of damage at three key grain export terminals in the area, with unconfirmed reports of loadout legs and storage facilities burning. The ports at Novo are Russia’s largest for exporting grain. Ports inside the Azov Sea are already closed due to Ukrainian attacks, leading to much of that grain being redirected to Novo, which handled 25 – 26 million metric tons of grain in the 2024-25 marketing year, although that declined to 18 mmt last year. Russia is trying to rail grain to its Baltic ports, but Russia’s exports could be cut in half if Ukraine is successful at halting operations at Novo. Keep in mind that Ukraine’s exports are also limited by Russia’s attacks on its ports, which will likely now increase even more in retaliation, although Ukraine can still move some grain via rail and truck into Europe. Corn and wheat prices rallied overnight due to reports of the attacks, but the market isn’t fully pricing in the impact of this risk yet, because alternative supplies are still available for now, and the market is still “assuming” that the grain will find a path before the grain is needed.
Taiwan is outraged by scheduled Chinese navy drills designed to escort an Indonesian warship past the island nation’s east coast under war time conditions. The Indonesian warship is returning from Japan, simply passing through the region. China scheduled the exercise to coincide with the warship’s passage to demonstrate its control of the waters totally surrounding Taiwan. It’s another example of China’s aggressive military behavior in the Indo-Pacific as it seeks to gain control over Taiwan, but also over an increasingly large area of the international waters of the Indo-Pacific while the U.S. military is focused on the Middle East. From that standpoint, China benefits from Iran continuing to occupy U.S. forces. That’s one more reason that I expect Iran to drag that war out as long as possible.
USDA is scheduled to release its highly anticipated WASDE crop report at Noon Eastern Time today. The primary focus is on USDA’s updated corn and soybean yields, which reverted back to using objective yield measurements, but there are plenty of other opportunities for market moving surprises in this report as well. For example, USDA is also expected to adjust acreage estimates for this year’s corn and soybean crops today, while it could also make notable change to its demand estimates as well, including possible reductions in exports for Russia and Ukraine. Look for the focus to shift more to the demand side of the balance sheet once the market feels comfortable with the size of this year’s U.S. crops, although that often does not occur before September or October.
This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.
The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.
References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.
StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.
R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.
StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.
This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.
StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).
SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.
StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.
StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.
StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.
StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
A strong super El Niño has started, but the crop damage that would lift food prices is still expected to land between September and December. Indian wheat area and Southeast Asian palm oil production sit at the front of the transmission chain, with Brazil the larger unresolved question.
Damage to Black Sea ports has stalled grain exports, but the more serious risk is now forming on the farm. Collapsed farmgate prices and a Russian fuel crisis have put part of the wheat harvest in question.
August 13 – The major stock indices traded quietly mixed overnight ahead of this morning’s weekly job numbers and producer price index data. Like Wednesday, this morning’s data was considered good as well, providing support for stocks while generally allowing Treasury yields to slip a bit lower. The VIX is trading near 14.4, which is just above yesterday’s new low for the year. The dollar index is trading near 99.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.64%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.15%. WTI crude oil is trading near $81 per barrel, while Brent trades near $87 per barrel. Wheat prices again firmed overnight on geopolitical risks in the Black Sea Region, while corn and soybean prices pulled back modestly from yesterday’s big gains.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
