Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 19

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 19 Aug 2025, 13:26

August 19 – Stock futures were mixed overnight, while the commodities had a weaker tone. Traders continue to monitor earnings reports ahead of this week’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming Symposium, where the Federal Reserve will discuss monetary policy, although we did get some encouraging data from the housing market this morning. We’re also seeing encouraging signs for the possibility of peace in Ukraine, although much work still must occur for that to happen. The VIX is trading near 15 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 98.1. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.76%. Crude oil prices are more than 1% lower this morning on the prospect of peace in the Black Sea, while the grain and oilseed markets were mostly lower overnight as well after day #1 of the Midwest crop tour found generally good crops.

Housing starts rose to an annualized rate of 1.428 million in July, up from 1.358 million in June, above analyst expectations of 1.290 million, and well above the highest trade guess. Today’s number is up 5.3% from the June total, while also 12.9% above the July 2024 pace. Building permits – an indicator of future construction – slipped to an annualized rate of 1.354 million, down a bit from 1.393 million in June, and below analyst expectations of 1.390 million. Permits issued in July were down 2.8% on the month and down 5.7% on the year. Housing completions in July rose to an annualized rate of 1.415 million, up 6% from the June completion number of 1.335 million, but 13.5% below the July 2024 pace of 1.635 million.

President Trump met with Russian President Putin in Alaska on Friday to discuss peace in Ukraine. The meeting was reportedly at the request of President Putin. President Trump then met with Ukraine President Zelenskiy in the White House on Monday, followed by a meeting with European leaders, including Germany, France, and Britain. You may recall the volatile meeting between Zelenskiy and Trump in the White House in February in which an emotional Zelenskiy expressed his unhappiness with Trump’s approach to the war, followed by a scolding of Zelenskiy by U.S. Vice-President Vance. This meeting went much better, with the two leaders seemingly warm toward one another. More follow-up talks are expected to take place today. Ukraine and European leaders seem encouraged by President Trump’s security guarantees for Ukraine, although we have yet to learn the details of those guarantees. President Trump is seeking a face-to-face meeting between Zelenskiy and Putin to reach an agreement between the two.

We do not yet have peace in Ukraine. We may not get peace in Ukraine, but the current developments offer some encouragement. This war has cost both Ukraine and Russia dearly. Both have an incentive for peace, but both are also driven by fear and mistrust. Ukraine fears that Putin will not keep his word, and that there will be future attacks, based on what history has shown it. Putin fears attacks from NATO-aligned nations, based on what he has seen over the past 500 to 1,000 years. They look at history through a much different lens in that part of the world than we do here in the States. It appears that Trump has tuned into that historical perspective. Peace in Ukraine could save a lot of lives, but it could also make the movement of commodities cheaper in global trade, while also opening up the possibility of trade agreements with India and others. Crude oil supplies could increase, while the cost of shipping wheat and corn out of the region could also decline, impacting global prices.

Where does China stand in all of this? China has a lot to potentially lose if there is peace in Ukraine. First, peace in Ukraine could give Trump access to rare earth minerals in Ukraine, reducing China’s leverage on the West, since it currently controls 90% of the processed rare earth minerals in the world necessary for the production of defense weapons, along with other electronics. Second, security guarantees in Ukraine might lead Putin to start worrying about his aggressor to the south in China. Third, peace in Ukraine might allow the United States to devote more military assets to the Indo-Pacific where China is active.

Day #1 of the Pro Farmer Midwest crop tour found some problem areas, but the overall numbers were good. Crop scouts were divided into a west group and an east group. The west group focused on areas of southeast South Dakota, while beginning their scouting of Nebraska. The calculated corn yield for the route in South Dakota was 174.2 bushels per acre, up from 156.5 bpa in last year’s tour. Soybean pod counts were at 1,188 in a 3’ X 3’ square, up from 1,026 a year ago. More variability was found in Ohio, including pollination issues, tip pullback, etc., but the Ohio tour route corn yield estimate came in at 185.7 bpa, up from 183.3 bpa the previous year. Soybean pod counts averaged 1,287, up from 1,230 a year ago. The western group will complete its tour of Nebraska today, while the eastern group will move through Indiana into Illinois.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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