Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 21

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 21 Aug 2026, 13:14

Today's Perspective Video: What Record Soybean Crush Means for Exports

August 21 – Stock futures rallied overnight, despite a plethora of negative headlines flowing from the media. One can read the news this morning and fall into despair, but then look to see positive stock futures trading just below recent record highs. The VIX is again trading near 15 this morning, with the dollar index trading near 98.7 as it sits at three-month lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.71%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.20%. WTI crude oil is near $87 per barrel, while Brent trades near $94. The grain and oilseed markets traded mostly weaker overnight as we approach a weekend when the headlines are sure to continue to flow from both the Middle East and Black Sea wars, although we also saw big flash sales from USDA this morning.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters that the United States is about to impose “the toughest sanctions in history” on Iran, with the details to be announced on Monday. His comments followed President Trump’s threats a day earlier warning of economic consequences for any country providing “any type of lifeline to Iran.” Bessent was asked whether the sanctions would apply to China as well, which purchases the bulk of Iranian oil on the market, to which Bessent wisely stated that some conversations are best had in private. The volume of Iranian oil on the water and available to China is expected to dry up over the coming month due to the current U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Both China and the United States have chosen to have private conversations about a series of issues in which they are in opposition over the past couple of years, based on the relationship of respect that President Xi and President Trump have developed for one another. Both of them have their red lines, but they choose to discuss those red lines in private, which reduces the risk that the other side would have to publicly respond to avoid looking weak. They understand that about each other. But there is no doubt that China’s help for Iran will be a significant topic of discussion leading up to and when the two meet on September 24.

It was nearly 10 months ago when the two met in South Korea to discuss trade. Significant differences separated the two, but they both needed things from each other. Both faced political challenges at home. President Xi offered to allow some rare earth minerals to flow to the United States, among other things, while also agreeing to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the current marketing year, followed by 25 mmt in each of the next three years. Thus far, China has lived up to that agreement despite their many differences since then. They met again in May, and China agreed to purchase an additional $17 billion per year of U.S. Ag commodities above and beyond the above-mentioned soybeans. It has not yet shown whether it will live up to that agreement, or if so, how it will live up to it. That will likely be a topic of conversation leading up to the meeting on September 24. I can almost guarantee that the negotiators are talking informally on nearly a daily basis, based on how the two Administrations prioritized that during Trump 1.0. The $17 billion in Ag products will be part of Xi’s leverage, while part of Trump’s leverage will be the Iranian sanctions. The two will likely agree to some sort of strategic stability regarding Taiwan, as that is definitely one of Xi’s red lines.

The U.S. midterm elections are just 74 days away. Iran knows that the midterm elections are crucial for President Trump to sustain his current level of power in U.S. policy. Seventy-four days is a very short time in their mind to hang on versus President Trump’s sanctions. But that also means that President Trump has just 74 days to make his case to the American voter, meaning that he is likely to pull out all the stops in putting pressure on Iran to stop its nefarious activities that are contributing to the risks to the U.S. and global economy. For decades U.S. presidents have put sanctions on Iran that looked like they were being tough on the rogue nation, but that in reality were not harsh enough to bring an end to the hostilities. This is a do or die moment in which Trump must find a way to do so, or Iran will have established its ability to stand up to the United States once and for all. At stake is Iran’s future as a power, as well as that of the United States. Fail, and other nations will start to yield to Iran in fear, increasing its power. Succeed, and the Iran threat can finally be put to bed. This is the pivotal moment in history for both Iran’s and the U.S.’s perceived stance among the nations.

Grain and oilseed prices rallied this week as market participants focused on reports of disappointing corn yields as reported by the Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour. The tour is now over and no longer making headlines. Sustaining this momentum will necessitate fresh fodder for the bulls, and that would likely have to come from the demand side of the ledger. The Black Sea war can contribute to that. This year’s soybean crop could be a big one, but demand will likely be bigger if China fulfills its commitment. Corn is also leaning that way, but it still needs a few more pieces to fall into place. We can argue about whether this year’s U.S. corn yield is 179, or 182, or 184 bushels per acre, but in the end, I expect demand to be the driver of where cash prices go from this point forward.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 26

August 26 – Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with a dearth of economic data to parse through this morning and various geopolitical developments catching attention. The VIX remains in a relatively tight range near the low-end of what we’ve seen for most of 2026, starting the day around the 15.7 level. The dollar is up 0.2% on the day, hovering just above 99.11 at the time of writing, maintaining a quiet week after last week’s sharp drop. Crude oil is looking to extend its slide this week amid a renewed potential movement toward normalization of flows through the Strait of Hormuz, with nearby WTI down 0.5% to trade near $80.70 and nearby Brent down 1.4% to trade near $86 at the time of writing. Treasury yields are looking at a quiet move higher to start the day, though the bigger rises are at the front-end of the curve, which should put the U.S. Department of Treasury in a good mood this morning. 2-year yields are up to 4.224%, 10-year yields are up to 4.66%, and 30-year yields are trading at 5.185%--off notably from their recent peak above 5.33%. The ags are mostly higher to start the day, with the wheat complex seeing double-digit gains following fresh strikes on vessels in the Black Sea from both sides, coinciding with Tunisia announcing a tender for 125,000 metric tons of optional origin milling wheat, warning that suppliers may not invoke force majeure due to the escalations in the Black Sea, which draws more focus to the impact this conflict may have on global wheat trade.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 13:31

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