Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 22 Aug 2022, 13:04

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

August 22 – Global economic concerns are again on the front burner to start the week, after China’s central bank cut interest rates, highlighting problems there. Contrarily, Wall Street traders remain concerned about anticipated additional rate hikes here in the States from the Federal Reserve. The VIX is trading above 23 for the first time since August 3^rd as anxiety ratchets up on Wall Street, pushing money toward the safe-haven assets. The dollar index is trading at new five-week highs near 108.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.97%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.28%. Crude oil prices are modestly weaker on the economic concerns. The Ags started lower overnight as well, but they firmed ahead of the morning pause in trading, led by corn and soybeans.

The annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, hosted by the Kansas City Federal Reserve District, is scheduled to take place Thursday to Saturday of this week. Wall Street will be monitoring speeches at the symposium closely for indications of any change in monetary policy direction, with the current thinking being that policymakers will reinforce their commitment to attacking inflation with hawkish monetary tightening – higher interest rates and shrinking the balance sheet. The approaching symposium will keep the headlines focused on the economy and on monetary policy, shaping sentiment on Wall Street this week.

The Kansas City Fed District tends to be one of the more hawkish / conservative central bank districts, but the speaker lineup for the symposium also tends to be highly academic in nature, which tends to push policy makers subtly closer to Modern Monetary Theory, which has been an utter failure to this point. MMT says that monetarily sovereign countries that spend, tax, and borrow in a fiat currency that they fully control are not operationally constrained by revenues when it comes to federal government spending, since they can print as much as they need. That’s been the general direction of the Fed since the Ben Bernanke error, which has largely contributed to the high inflation and economic malaise currently hampering the economy.

China faces a different challenge currently. Covid cases hit three-month highs last week, resulting in more restrictions and localized lockdowns. Case numbers came off those highs over the weekend, but still remain high for a country with a zero-tolerance policy. China reported 360 locally transmitted Covid-19 cases on Sunday, along with 1,464 asymptomatic carriers. More than 20 colleges and universities postponed the start of the new semester to help slow the spread of Covid. China cut its benchmark lending rates today to help stimulate the economy amid the Covid restrictions. It’s one-year prime loan rate was cut 5 basis points to 3.65%, while its five-year rate was cut 15 basis points to 4.3%. The latter is hoped to help stimulate the housing market. A couple of more rate cuts are anticipated ahead of the end of the year. China’s currency continues to slide relative to the dollar as we move in the opposite direction in our monetary policy.

Severe drought and heat continued to stress crops in China’s Yangtze River Valley. Cropland impacted by the drought has expanded to 5.4 million acres in nine provinces in the basin, which is largely to the south and west of China’s main corn and soybean producing areas. The basin most impacted by the heat and drought accounts for 7.3% of China’s autumn rice crop (double-crop rice). The autumn rice crop produced 213 million tons last year, amounting to 31% of China’s total grain output in 2021. Sichuan is China’s largest hydropower producer in the river basin, but it’s power output is currently cut in half due to low water levels on the river. Many industry users are shut down, while residents have been asked not to set their thermostats below 26°C (78.8°F) to conserve power.

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour kicks off today. It will provide traders with their best information to date on the condition of the U.S. Midwest corn and soybean crops. Some traders are on the tour, but most will be monitoring field reports on social media, giving them a better handle on corn ear health across the Midwest, as well as soybean pod counts. We’ve heard plenty of anecdotal reports of both good and bad crops thus far this year. The tour provides a broader look at the crops to put those anecdotal reports into context. The tour is split in two parts – one part focusing on the western belt, while the other focuses on the east. The two groups will come together in southern Minnesota to combine their notes by the end of the week after both spend some time in Iowa. The field reports mean more to me than do the yield estimates at the end of the week, as they should give a better idea of the overall crop health that will impact the balance sheets.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.