Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 22 Aug 2025, 13:20

Today's Perspective Video: Big Crops Get Smaller

August 22 – It’s Fed Day on the Street. No, the Federal Open Market Committee is not meeting to change its monetary policy, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking before policymakers, journalists, academics and others in Jackson Hole, Wyoming at 8 a.m. Mountain Time. That could very well set the tone going forward. The VIX is trading near 16 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 98.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.32%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.79%. Crude oil prices traded quietly higher overnight, while the grain and oilseed markets were mixed.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has the focus of the world this morning. He knows that President Trump will not allow him to serve as chair of the central bank beyond the expiration of his term in May. He knows that the president has maligned him in the public sector many times, and he has held strong against the storm. This will be his last opportunity to address central bankers at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. He is expected to use his final platform opportunity at the symposium to unfold the new policy framework developed by staffers for shaping future monetary policy. The new framework is expected to take a different approach to the relationship between inflation and the employment sector, putting more focus on controlling inflation, even though Powell put his emphasis on employment at the recent July meeting. Doing so led Wall Street to believe that a September rate cut was imminent, particularly after a poor job report two days after Powell’s July meeting comments. However, yesterday’s PMI data could actually argue for a rate hike, particularly if the central bank is going to put more emphasis on inflation – believing that taming inflation will create a better environment for employment. To be clear, I have been a critic of the Fed’s focus on academic theory rather than real-world business focus in developing policy. But I do not support political influence on the Fed. Many presidents of both parties have done so, as most would prefer low interest rates that stimulate growth during their tenure. I do want to see change at the Fed, but I also want independence in policy development that is grounded in solid proven business principles.

China and India are moving toward one another, rather than apart, as President Trump had hoped. They’ve agreed to increased trade, with urea fertilizer expected to flow once again from China to India. That has implications for the fertilizer market, but the bottom line is that India is moving away from the West currently, rather than toward it in Trump’s attempt to isolate China. The world’s two most populous nations are strengthening ties at the expense of the United States. President Trump’s tariffs have proven to be an effective negotiating tool with many key countries, but they appear to have backfired in this case. Peace in Ukraine could unwind the 50% tariff on India, but I believe that is one of the reasons that China will continue to influence Russian President Putin to continue the war.

Soybean oil futures surged on Thursday, contributing to strong gains in soybean futures as well. For context, soyoil prices had been trending lower off their July highs on worries over what the Environmental Protection Agency’s policy will be toward the 195 Small Refinery Exemption applications in front of it. The EPA is expected to rule on the SREs prior to releasing its final RVO blending requirements. The RVO recommendations were released earlier this summer, have gone through the comment period, and are now being prepared for final release at some point prior to the end of October. Rumors started circulating this week that the EPA would release some type of a ruling on the SREs sooner rather than later – perhaps as soon as today. Both Bloomberg and Reuters reported this week that they believed that an announcement could come as soon as today, or perhaps next Friday ahead of the Labor Day holiday. Unnamed sources for the stories indicated that the EPA probably would not rule on whether the SREs would be offset by an increase in blending requirements for larger refineries, but rather that several options could be provided by the EPA, along with a comment period to test industry responses to the potential options. Traders then took note that someone had purchased 1,000 option contracts for September 54-cent soyoil calls on Monday, spurring speculation about what someone might know? That created the surge of futures buying that we witnessed. Domestic soybean demand will be critical this year amid the current absence of Chinese buying.

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour wrapped up in southern Minnesota last night. It found very good crops in the western half of the Midwest. It found some problems in the east. Most disappointing though were the Illinois corn numbers, which will likely drag the national numbers lower if the tour results verify. Soybean yield potential remains good, but the market suggests that traders don’t expect it to be much bigger than what is already priced in, and it may be smaller. Look for Pro Farmer to release its official yield estimates this afternoon, with history suggesting they’ll be below USDA. The focus now is on strong corn demand, farmers selling rallies on both sides of the equator, and on the EPA’s SRE and RVO biofuel announcements, whenever they’re released.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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