Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 28 Aug 2025, 12:57

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

August 28 – Dow Jones futures pointing higher to open the day after two straight winning sessions, looking ready to again challenge Friday’s record high close. That’s despite Nvidia shares falling around 2% in premarket trade, despite that company’s highly-anticipated Q2 earnings matching trade estimates. S&P 500 futures are little-changed after a record close yesterday. Ten-year treasury yields fell slightly to 4.23, with the dollar and crude oil both slightly lower as of the time of this writing; the VIX remains very subdued below the 15-point level.

The U.S. economy grew by 3.3% from the first to the second quarter of 2025, up from 3.0% seen previously and above the average 3.1% trade estimate; net exports added nearly five percentage points to GDP, the most on record. The Corn PCE Price Index matched expectations with a 2.5% quarterly increase. Economic growth has moderated overall through the first half of 2025 (averaging a +1.25%), with consumer spending tempered after a late-2024 spike and in the face of trade uncertainty.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 23 came in almost right on trade expectations at 229k, compared to the average 229k trade guess; the week prior was revised down a tick from 235k to 234k. The steady overall figures suggest that employers are retaining current workers “amid economic uncertainty”. Continuing claims for the week ending August 16 were also fairly steady week-over-week and near expectations at 1.954 million.

Nvidia reported second-quarter earnings that were essentially in line with trade expectations yesterday after the bell, earning $46.7 billion in revenue in Q2, up 56% from the same span last year – those are impressive numbers, but nothing close to massive year-over-year earnings reported in recent quarters. The company’s shares dipped a bit in overnight trade; Nvidia had warned the market that they expected to take an $8 billion hit because of export controls on chip shipments to China. Longer-term outlooks for the bellwether technology/AI firm remain strong, once the trade battle between the U.S. and China is resolved.

The grain markets look to be going quietly into the end of the month, ready to start a fresh marketing season (2025/26) next week – a much-anticipated one that will likely be heavily supplied with record 2025 U.S. corn and soybean crops, but holds a lot of questions on the demand side of the ledger. The corn balance sheet can fold in a much smaller crop than currently estimated (somewhere closer to the “Pro” Farmer estimate or even something only just above last year’s record yield) due to vastly overextended USDA demand numbers, while soybeans desperately need China to come in and import some U.S. product at some point – domestic crush will be strong but it can’t cover the entire demand side. Most of the complex is within a penny or two of unchanged at the time of this writing, as December corn ratchets lower towards the $4/bu mark while soybeans hold off highs but still near $10.50/bu.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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