Perspective: Morning Commentary for December 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 08 Dec 2022, 14:39

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

December 8 – Positive money flow provided support for both the commodity and equity sectors overnight, as the markets consolidate ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, while garnering support from opening momentum in China. The VIX continues to trade near 23 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 105.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.48%, after falling to a nearly three-month low near 3.40% on Wednesday, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.31%. Crude oil probed below $72 for the first time since December 22 of last year on Wednesday, but they’re rebounding by more than 2% this morning. The grain and oilseed markets are mixed to start the day.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 230K in the week ending December 3, up from 226K the previous week, and above analyst expectations of 228K claims. That pushed the four-week moving average to 230K claims, up from 229K the previous week. Continuing claims for the week ending November 26 rose another 62K to 1.671 million. That number is still relatively low from a historical perspective, but it’s been steadily rising. It represents the number of people struggling longer-term to find work. That’s a bit surprising since job postings are still quite high at more than 10 million, but perhaps it also reflects a desire to wait until after the holidays to get a job. Nonetheless, it will be viewed as a sign that a very tight jobs market is starting to loosen just a bit, which is needed to ease wage inflation. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate is still 3.7%, and that likely needs to move closer to 6% to truly tame wage inflation.

We continue to see more signs of China opening up again, although I would be wary of thinking that this will be a smooth path to economic growth. Covid-19 restrictions have been removed from domestic travel, meaning that negative Covid-tests and health codes are no longer needed to travel within the country. People are free to travel where they wish within China, which is expected to also spread the virus rapidly. Retail sales, catering and travel should all benefit from the lifting of these restrictions. Covid numbers are initially going down, as would be expected. High numbers previously were seen due to mandatory testing that identified asymptomatic carriers, which made up 90% of the positive tests. Those people will have no reason to seek testing now, which means they’ll continue to move about, spreading the virus. Based on what we’ve seen in the United States and elsewhere, this means that we’ll likely see a rapid built of Covid numbers over the next several months, with health experts believing that 60% of the population could contract the virus by next month, when the annual Spring Festival occurs. Speaking of that, ticket searches for the Festival hit a three-year high on several online travel platforms following the easing of travel restrictions this week, with people anxious to take advantage of the new restriction free environment. Yet, we should remember that the quarantine-at-home requirements will still be in place for those who test positive, which means that we’ll likely see a significant portion of the Chinese population self-quarantining and not doing commerce over the next two to three months. This will curb the recovery until herd immunity has been achieved.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Saudi Arabia for the second day of his summit with Arab leaders today. Few details have emerged from the conference, other than reports that initial agreements signed total US$30 billion, including US$4 billion in Chinese weapons purchased by Saudi Arabia. The conference of Arab leaders are reportedly agreeing to significant agreements involving the expansion of China’s Belt and Road program that will further expand Chinese influence in the Middle East, while distancing Saudi Arabia from the United States. The move is one more piece of a dynamic shift in the world order over the past couple of years as Russia and China seek to put aside their differences to become the dominant economic and military force that directs global events.

USDA reports the sale of another 836K metric tonnes of soybeans to China and to “unknown destinations” – assumed to be China – this morning. This comes on top of a similar sales of 504K mt a couple of days prior. Chinese buyers expected to be able to buy 1 – 1.5 mmt of cheap Argentine soybeans in that country’s pesos for soybeans program, but it hasn’t worked out so far. As such, buyers are quickly trying to fill the void with U.S. soybeans, providing near-term support for the market. A weaker dollar provided additional support for corn and wheat prices to bounce on Wednesday following recent losses. Otherwise, fundamental news is lacking. USDA is expected to release its updated domestic and global balance sheets at Noon Eastern Time on Friday. This is typically one of the quieter reports of the year, although we’ll likely see some tweaks here and there.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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