Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 11 Feb 2022, 14:27

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 11 – Stocks came under pressure from follow-through selling overnight, but then began to erase losses when selling momentum evaporated in the very early morning hours, before pushing positive as desks opened up in the United States this morning. The VIX posted a one-week high above 25 overnight, but then began to fall as stock futures recovered, trading currently just below 24. The dollar index is trading near 95.8 this morning, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.0%, after posting a two-year high above 2.05% yesterday. Crude oil prices are 1% higher this morning as money flows into the broader commodity sector, which also helped support a recovery bounce in the Ags following yesterday’s big reversal lower.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned today that a Russian invasion into Ukraine may be imminent. He stated, “We’re in a window when an invasion could begin at any time, and to be clear, that includes during the Olympics. Simply put, we continue to see very troubling signs of Russian escalation, including new forces arriving at the Ukrainian border.” The Olympic Games end on February 20^th, and Russia’s Military Day is February 23^rd. Russia launched joint military exercises in Belarus on Ukraine’s northern border this week, along with naval drills in the Black Sea. Russia denies that it plans to invade Ukraine, but it warns that it could take unspecified “military-technical” action unless the West agrees to a series of demands. Those demands include a commitment to never allow Ukraine into NATO, and a promise to remove western troops from Eastern Europe. Four-way talks yesterday between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France saw no progress. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson warned Thursday that the days ahead would be the most dangerous moment in Europe’s biggest security crisis for decades.

The conflict adds some pre-weekend drama for the commodity markets heading into the weekend. Fund managers must ask themselves whether they’d prefer to go into the weekend long or short the commodities. Some of the commodities that could be most dramatically impacted by a military conflict in the region include wheat, corn, sunflower oil, fertilizer, crude oil, and more. This comes after much of the commodity sector posted a bearish reversal on Thursday, as momentum-trading computers flipped from buyers to sellers midday. There were a few fundamental and technical factors, but the whiplash of momentum is typical of a market trading at high levels in today’s world of computer trading.

Inflation remains a key conversation on Wall Street driving the money flow behind those computers. Yesterday’s consumer price index data showing the hottest inflation in four decades, creating a stir on Wall Street. Money flowed into the commodities as a hedge against inflation, before flowing out on fears that the high numbers may lead the Fed to over-react, stalling this nation’s economic growth. Yields on 10-year Treasuries pushed above 2% for the first time in more than two years on Thursday, but some of the greatest volatility was seen in Fed fund futures, where the market priced in expectations reflecting almost certainty that we will see a 50-basis point increase in the Fed’s benchmark interest rate at its March meeting, although that certainty calmed to roughly 65% odds this morning. The market also priced in expectations on Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by 175 to 200 basis points by its December meeting on Thursday, although here again, those odds have moderated a bit this morning. The bottom line is that history tells us that inflation tends to be supportive of positive money flow into the broader commodity sector, until those expectations create fear, at which time the money flow pulls back again until those fears ease. That’s a snapshot of what we saw play out over the past 24 hours. Fundamentals of individual assets still matter, but supply and demand are balanced within the context of the above money flow factors.

CONAB’s slashing of Brazil’s soybean production estimate by 15 million metric tons to 125.5 mmt yesterday gave credibility to other private estimates – including StoneX Brazil – that were already in that range. Those low numbers are a game changer for the soybean balance sheet if they are verified by the combines in the weeks and months ahead. The market has a lot more work to do to ration demand, stimulate acreage expansion in the States and to balance supplies between Brazil and the United States if those numbers prove accurate, and that doesn’t include potential losses yet in Argentina, where the forecast continues to threaten more heat and drought. Corn becomes more of a focus in March and April in both Argentina and in Brazil, with the focus then shifting north to the U.S. growing season beyond that. Meanwhile, the Ag and Energy markets will also continue to keep their eyes on the conflict in the Black Sea Region, especially over the next 10 days to two weeks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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