Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 15 Feb 2024, 14:08

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

February 15 – Dow Jones futures are indicating a second straight rebounding session, after the hit earlier this week from inflation data; weaker-than-expected retail data this morning has traders a bit more positive about rate cuts to aid the economy, but that back-and-forth discussion is far from over. The ten-year treasury note yield is slipping a bit today but remains higher than it was pre-Tuesday surge, while the VIX is pointing lower for the second straight day after the Tuesday spike. The Fed is still expected to hold interest rates steady in next month’s March policy meeting (with the trade 90% sure of unchanged rates for now), but they are still on record that rate cuts are on the table some time before the end of the year.

Economic data is plentiful this morning and headlined by employment numbers; initial U.S. jobless claims for the week ending February 10 came in at 212k, below the average 220k trade expectation. Continuing claims for the week ending February 3 came in at 1895k, above the average 1880k guess. The labor market continues to show resilience in the face of higher interest rates. Retail sales fell 0.8% in January, more than expected and the largest month-over-month drop in nearly a year following a strong holiday retail season. December sales were revised slightly lower as well, though that number is still on the positive side (+0.4%). Plenty more data is on the way through the morning hours, including industrial production and business data ahead shortly.

Corn export sales hit a nine-week high at 51.4 million bushels this week, on the high end of the trade estimate range as well; soybean sales continued to lag at 13.0 mbu, on the low end of the trade range there. Corn remains slightly behind its seasonal pace needed to hit the current USDA estimate with soybeans slightly ahead, though neither varying enough to cause action on said USDA 2023/24 estimates in last week’s February S&D. Export sales are slow overall due to a strong U.S. dollar and plentiful supplies coming from South America.

The USDA came through roughly as expected with their 2024 Ag Forum balance tables this morning, mostly matching previously-published forecasts on the major supply-side numbers – although soybean planted acreage at 87.5 million was a half-million above initial estimates and a full million above the average trade guess, as well as nearly four million more than in 2023. Both corn and soybeans will start out with hefty ending stocks estimates regardless, after more-than-adequate carryouts in the current marketing season. Perhaps the most interesting data point from this is where the USDA sets their yield trend expectation – at 181.0 bushels per acre for corn, it’s down a half-bushel from 2023 and even with 2022, while soybeans at 52.0 bpa is equal to last season’s start. Final corn yields have fallen short of Ag Forum estimates now in five straight seasons…

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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