Perspective: Morning Commentary for February 28

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 28 Feb 2022, 14:20

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

February 28 – Ceasefire talks began today on the Ukraine-Belarus border, but confidence is low that meaningful progress will be achieved. Rather, the markets are pricing in the weekend’s escalated tensions that rose to a new level in Russia’s fight to take over Ukraine. The VIX is trading near 32 on the escalating tensions, while the dollar is trading near 96.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading lower near 1.89% as money flows into the safe-haven assets. Crude oil prices are trading 4% higher above $95 per barrel after spiking above $99 overnight. The Ags are sharply higher on risks that a significant amount of global trade has been taken off the global market for this year, and possibly the next. We are rapidly moving toward the point where spring crops will not be planted in Ukraine due to a number of different factors that could keep Ukraine’s vast production capacity offline over the coming year. Furthermore, revised production estimates should come out of drought-stricken Brazil this week as well.

Russia is rapidly being isolated, but Russia’s President Putin remains resolute to move forward – seemingly even more defiant as the problems build for his push to take Ukraine. The stakes were increased over the weekend as the West stepped up sanctions, Putin became frustrated with the lack of progress by his army, and as more countries stepped up their criticism of Russia. Russian troops continue to advance through Ukraine, but they’ve encountered significant resistance from Ukrainian citizens fighting alongside the Ukrainian army. The citizens of Ukraine are determined to remain free at all costs.

European leaders reversed their position on Saturday to allow a partial exclusion of Russian banks from the Swift banking system based in Brussels. This eliminates these banks from transferring funds necessary for Russia to do business with nearly every other country other than China. They didn’t go all the way, as Western leaders are not yet willing to pay the price of higher energy prices to block banks funneling funds to Russia for the crude oil and natural gas that it sells to the West, but it’s the strongest step that they’ve taken to this point. Regardless, the steps taken are expected to disrupt some energy movement. It’s believed that President Putin has roughly $640 billion of reserves to live off of for a while, although attempts are being taken to isolate him from those funds.

Flow of many of the other commodities out of Russia had already begun to stop. Those commodities needing to flow through the Black Sea face large insurance premiums to move through the troubled waters after several ships were hit by missiles last week. That all but stopped the flow of corn, wheat, and fertilizer through the Black Sea, especially anything flowing from Russia and Ukraine. That potentially removes 29% of the world’s exportable wheat from the global market, along with 16% of the corn and 15 – 30% of the fertilizer needed for the Northern Hemisphere growing season and roughly three-fourths of the sunflower oil.

President Putin is said to be angered by the slow progress of his army across Ukraine as it encounters resistance, while also being upset with the West’s response. As such, he upped the ante on Sunday by raising the alert status of his nuclear defense forces. Whether he believes it, or is simply saying it to justify his actions, Putin’s statements suggest that he sees Russia as the victim in the is conflict with all the West out to get him. In all likelihood, raising the alert status is merely an attempt to step up pressure on the West to back down, but in reality, it requires that the West raise its alertness as well. That ratchets up the risk that a misunderstanding or miscommunication turns into a dangerous nuclear conflict. The U.S. State Department warned Americans currently living in Russia to leave immediately as tensions mount. There are now reports that the European Union has offered Ukraine fighter jets to use in its defense, which suggests that Europe sees an increased urgency in getting Russia stopped.

There’s another risk not getting much attention at this point. Will we see any crops planted in Ukraine in 2022, beyond the winter wheat currently growing? And how much of that will be harvested. Ukraine is at risk of falling to Putin’s armies. Will he allow landowners to retain ownership of their ground? What incentive will they have for planting crops, especially since many of them live out of the country? Will there be enough seed and other crop inputs available to grow a crop? How will it be financed with the current financial networks disrupted? Will they be able to find parts for equipment? Ukraine is responsible for nearly 12% of the world’s wheat exports each year and more than 16% of its corn exports. That’s a lot of grain that could be lost from the world balance sheet over the next year or two. This is far from over, even if the fighting ends soon.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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