Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 10

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 10 Jan 2022, 14:35

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 10 – Stock futures came under modest selling pressure this morning, despite a favorable outlook for banks benefiting from higher interest rates. Traders are waiting for key inflation and retail sales data to be released in the last half of this week, along with the start of earnings season later this week. The VIX rallied above 21 to its highest level since December 22^nd early this morning, reflecting slowly rising concerns about how this week might play out on Wall Street. The dollar index firmed to trade near 96.2 as yields on 10-year Treasuries rallied to a one-year high near 1.81%. Crude oil prices pulled back modestly with stock futures, as did the Ags, in what initially reflects risk-off sentiment to start the week. The Ags face a big week, with USDA scheduled for its biggest data-dump of the year on Wednesday – reports known for their surprises.

Airline flight cancellations remain relevant, although they are trending better as we start the new week. FlightAware reports 726 U.S. flights cancelled this morning, with another 582 delays reported. The blame has largely been put on airline crews, but the problem goes much deeper than that, relative to the spread of the Omicron variant of Covid-19. Much of the problem is also related to worker absenteeism in the support network that keeps the airlines in the air, including baggage handlers, gate attendants, refuelers, food service personnel, etc. Omicron hit the U.S. employment sector hard over the past few weeks. Many of us grew up in a culture that fostered working through mild illnesses, but today’s world requires quarantine protocols to slow the spread of Covid-19, which adds to lost work hours and to disrupted business activity. Another sector getting hit is the meat packer industry. That sector should be fine if numbers decline this week, but otherwise we could see more significant disruptions in supplies.

The Centers for Disease Control reported 831K positive Covid tests on Friday, down from the more than 1 million cases seen earlier in the week, but a substantial number, nonetheless. Some analysts speculate that there may be multiples of this in unreported positive home tests each day as well. The CDC put the seven-day moving average at a record 668K on Friday. The CDC reported 25,995 Covid-related deaths in the week ending January 9, 2021, a year ago, versus “just” 2,526 Covid-related deaths in the week ending January 1, 2022. That number is trending higher as Omicron cases explode higher, but it still helps to put them into perspective. Some analysts believe that we should start to see the case numbers peak and turn lower over the next week or so if we follow the same curve as was observed in South Africa, where this variant reportedly originated.

China reported 157 new confirmed Covid cases yesterday, with 97 of them classified as locally transmitted. That included 60 cases in Henan, 21 in Tianjin, 15 in Shannxi and 1 in Shenzhen. Two of the cases in Tianjin were identified as being the Omicron variant, triggering it to do a mass testing of all people in the region. As of today, 40 new cases were identified in Tianjin. The recent outbreak in Xi’an was the largest to date for any city since the initial outbreak in Wuhan, but the Xi’an outbreak was of the Delta variant. There were “just” 15 cases in Xi’an yesterday, indicating that China’s zero-tolerance policy is again successfully eradicating the virus, albeit at a cost. The Omicron variant may prove more challenging since its spreads so easily and so fast. China certainly wants to be as close to Covid-free as it can when it hosts the winter Olympics next month.

Crude oil prices eased back somewhat this morning as some lost crude oil output returned from Kazakhstan. Yet, the protests continue in this former Soviet state, with significant longer-term implications. Thousands of people have reportedly been swept up in the government’s “anti-terrorist” operation. This is increasingly becoming a common phrase of authorities to justify removing people from anti-government protests. Of greatest interest here is the involvement of Russian troops in the operation at a time when Russia continues to also build up troop numbers along its border with Ukraine. Kazakhstan appears to be increasingly coming under Russian control at a time when Russia is also threatening to take Ukraine under its control. Only Russian President Putin knows his intentions. But the associated conflicts could have a significant impact on the commodities in the weeks and months ahead. The energy markets have already raised concerns over potential crude oil disruptions. The potential exists for similar risks for corn and wheat shipments out of the Black Sea region if broader conflict develops in Ukraine.

Near-term though, the focus will be on South American weather, and on Wednesday’s massive USDA reports known for their surprises. Key numbers to watch include production estimates for Argentina and Brazil corn and soybeans, final U.S. 2021 corn and soybean yields, U.S. corn, wheat & soybean December 1 quarterly stock estimates, as well as the winter wheat seedings survey results. All of these numbers have the potential for surprises that could alter market direction going forward. They could offset one another, or they could have an additive effect. This is a pivotal week for the commodities.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.