Perspective: Morning Commentary for January 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 04 Jan 2022, 14:30

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

January 4 – Stock futures suggest another day of record territory for stocks today as traders prepare for what is expected to be a strong monthly jobs report on Friday. Stocks continue to soar despite an unprecedented rise in Covid numbers as Omicron races through the population. The VIX traded near 16 this morning – its lowest level in nearly seven weeks – as optimism rules on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading near 96.3 this morning, which is its highest level in nearly two weeks, as yields on 10-year Treasuries surged to trade near 1.68%, up 17 basis points so far this week and the highest in nearly six weeks. Crude oil prices are modestly higher on the above economic optimism, despite another day of massive airline cancellations, while the Ags were mostly higher overnight as well.

More than a million people tested positive for Covid-19 in the United States on Monday, and that didn’t include those home tests that were not reported. Omicron remains the dominant variant within the United States. So why aren’t we shutting down? Well, many Wall Street businesses are asking their non-essential workers to work from home, but for the most part, the economy continues to roll. People continue to shop, attend movies, football games, etc. While not true for everyone, America is no longer yielding to fear because people are learning to live with Covid. There are unfortunately those who still succumb to the most serious complications of Covid, resulting in hospitalization, and even death. But for most, Omicron results in symptoms similar to the common cold. This is not meant to be a medical analysis or recommendation, but rather an observation of how America is responding to this latest wave of the Covid-19 virus. The economy is still rolling, with stocks at or near record highs, and inflation running rampant due to extraordinarily high consumer demand.

Air travel remains a mess across the country, and really, around the world. Flight cancellations into, out of, and within the United States approached 3K on Monday, with a myriad of additional delays. A winter storm in the Mid-Atlantic didn’t help, but the primary culprit was sick crew members as Omicron continues to spread. FlightAware reports that 1,198 flights have already been cancelled within the United States this morning, with another 1,040 delays. Every one of those cancelled flights is fuel not consumed and crude oil not refined. Yet, the crude oil market continues to attempt rallies on expectations that this problem will be relatively short-lived. Some people in the medical field believe that we will see the Covid numbers peak very quickly over the next couple of weeks, followed by a rapid decline in numbers, which would get those flights going once again, consuming energy. Meanwhile, production problems in Libya and elsewhere have made it difficult for OPEC+ to increase output as much as it planned, partially offsetting the negative impact of Covid on energy demand.

Chinese authorities reported 108 new Covid-19 cases yesterday, including 95 in Xi’an. That represents a small decline in the daily case count for Xi’an, which has been in a virtual lockdown for the past two weeks. It’s been in a strict lockdown despite a total of roughly 1,700 cases over the past month in a city of nearly 13 million people to enforce China’s zero-tolerance policy. City leaders have reportedly been removed and punished for their failure to prevent the outbreak. Multiple rounds of mass testing have occurred to identify cases. People are not allowed to leave their community compounds unless approved by their local leader. Residents need to show a negative Covid test before they can seek medical services at hospitals. Many people are unable to shop, leaving them dependent on delivery services for food and other essential items. This is China’s way of keeping Covid at bay ahead of hosting the Olympics in February, as well as ahead the once-every-five-year meeting of Congress later this year.

Several key winter wheat production states released crop condition ratings on Monday afternoon, revealing the adverse impact of the ongoing drought in the Plains, and the inland hurricane that damaged the crop on December 15^th. Kansas, Oklahoma, and Nebraska saw at least a 25-point decline in the portion of the crop rated Good to Excellent, versus the ratings that were released just ahead of the December wind event. Colorado saw a 12-point decline in the ratings. These states produced 46% of last year’s winter wheat production and 36% of the total national wheat crop in 2021. This does not guarantee a short crop in 2022, but it does increase the odds of such. We’ve also seen a shift back to hotter and drier for the next two weeks for Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. StoneX Brazil released its monthly customer-survey-based production estimates on Monday, cutting 11 million metric tons off its December soybean crop estimate, dropping it to 134 mmt. It also reduced its total corn production estimate by 2.5 mmt to 117.5 mmt. The corn cuts are due to adverse weather for the smaller summer crop.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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