Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 22

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 22 Jul 2022, 12:36

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Matt Zeller

Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

July 22 – The Dow Jones Industrials are looking to finish off a strong week, despite weakness in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 this morning due to declining social media and tech shares. Snap Inc., owner of Snapchat, said they are seeing sharply declining advertising spending due to supply-chain disruptions, labor shortages, rising costs, and inflation battles among its advertisers. Online ad sellers are taking a hit and Twitter will report results today. The social media landscape could be a bit of a “canary in the coal mine” in terms of a slowing economy; preliminary manufacturing numbers for July are still seen solid from S&P Global later this morning, slowing over the last couple months but still holding above the 50-point expansion/contraction level (estimated at 52.0) used by most indicators.

WTI crude oil gapped lower across the $100/bbl mark yesterday and are following through with further losses so far today. Libya resumed production at several of its oil fields this week, and U.S. demand took a hit over the last couple weeks due to high pump prices. There is plenty of concern over global oil demand with the world economic outlook weakening, and central banks in the middle of pumping up interest rates to slow rampant inflation. The widespread consensus is for the U.S. Fed to raise rates by another 75 basis points next week, with only a few economists polled by Reuters still looking for a full 1% jump. Said economists are also looking for a 40% chance of a recession over the next year, and a 50% chance within two years; those numbers are up from 25% and 40%, respectively, in the same poll in June.

We’re firing up a bit more active precipitation pattern in the Midwest over the next ten days, with coverage appearing decent in the near-term, though heavy and widespread amounts are still not in the forecast for the heart of the corn belt. It remains to be seen if rains will be “just in time”, coupled with temps finally cooling off a bit after tomorrow’s peak. New-crop corn and soybean contracts are at their lowest levels since January, with the former having taken back about $2 and the latter around $3 per bushel since May/June highs.

The September Chicago wheat contract has taken back all its “war premium” and then some; the chart below denotes the initial date of the Russian invasion, which is reaching the five-month mark. All signs are pointing toward the successful signing of an agreement as we speak, allowing Ukraine grain exports from multiple southern ports. Said ports account for around half of the country’s pre-war seaborne exports. The deal, brokered by the United Nations, will allow safe passage of Ukraine grain cargoes, with a control/inspection center located in Istanbul staffed by officials from all sides. Russia, of course, still needs to uphold its end of the bargain by not firing on said ships or attacked opened up ports, with the war raging on as intensely as ever.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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