Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 25 Jul 2025, 12:42

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

July 25 – U.S. stock market futures are steady to mixed this morning after the Dow Jones moved off near-record highs yesterday, with the ten-year treasury yield flat at 4.41%, the U.S. dollar and WTI crude oil trading slightly higher, and gold retreating from highs. The VIX is flat near the already-depressed 15-point level. Shares of U.S. chip giant Intel are anchoring the DJIA, down more than 7% premarket after posting a surprise Q2 earnings loss.

It was quite the scene yesterday as President Trump visited the Federal Reserve, touring the building amid ongoing renovations side-by-side with Fed Chair Powell, then giving a press conference alongside Powell as well. He did walk back his suggestion that the Chairman should be fired, calling such a move “big and not necessary” and saying that he “believes Powell is going to do the right thing”. Trump has also criticized the construction costs of yearlong renovations to the Fed building, though the two men could not agree on the proposed cost figure either. Trump is only the fourth sitting President to visit the Fed since its inception in 1937, but he likely wanted to make his mark ahead of the July policy meeting next week; regardless, the trade sees very little chance for an interest rate cut this month, expecting the Fed to push a rate cut or two into one of the remaining meetings later in 2025.

The U.S. and Japan agreed to a tariff deal earlier this week and reports are that the European Union is on the verge of doing the same, as E.U. officials likely expect the same 15% tariff rate as Japan. E.U. countries did approve a package of retaliatory tariffs covering more than $100 billion of U.S. goods exported to the Union annually, in case a deal is not reached by the August 1 deadline. A 30% tariff rate was slapped on the E.U. and that’s the number they’re hoping to avoid.

Durable goods orders for June fell 9.3% month-over-month, better than the average trade estimate for a -10.7% move, but down from a +16.5% figure in May and the worst MoM reading since April 2020. Durables excluding transportation did increase by 0.2% in June, a tick better than the average +0.1% trade expectation. Lingering company uncertainty over global trade and interest rate policy likely contributed to the June decline.

Global end-users have been snapping up cheap U.S. supplies as of late – corn in particular – with the notable exception of China still being mostly absent in the soybean market. However, it doesn’t seem to matter how high USDA export estimates get pushed, the trade’s main focus remains on the prospect of a monster 2025 U.S. corn crop. We continue to hear lots of reports of pollination problems and “tassel wrap”, but it will be tough to judge the scope of this issue until crop tours get into the fields, and more likely until combines start to roll this fall. Charts below courtesy of Nutrien Ag Weather show the main story for the 2025 growing season – a wet summer so far and a continued pattern for rains now right up through the first week of August.

image-20250725074132-1

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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