Perspective: Morning Commentary for July 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 07 Jul 2026, 13:25

July 7 – Two more ships were attacked exiting the Strait of Hormuz, but the market response has been little more than a yawn at this point. We saw a bump in crude oil prices, but crude oil is still near pre-war levels and the VIX still near multi-month lows. Stock futures are steady to mixed this morning, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average is poised for yet another possible record high today. The VIX is trading below 16 this morning, while the dollar index is trading near 100.9. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.50%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14%. WTI crude oil prices are trading near $69 per barrel, while Brent trades near $73 per barrel. The grain and oilseed complex traded mixed to firmer overnight, with wheat prices leaning weaker while soybeans leaned a bit firmer on Chinese buying.

A crude oil tanker was hit by an unknown projectile believed to be from Iran late on Monday as it exited the Strait of Hormuz. The ship was located 8 nautical miles east of Limah, Oman traveling south when it was hit. The strike sparked a fire, but no casualties were reported and the ship remained seaworthy. The incident was reported by the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations office. That was followed by another attack on a liquified natural gas carrier in nearly the same location early today. The second vessel is owned by Qatar’s state-owned shipping company Nakilat. It was reportedly traveling with its transponder turned off. That’s ironic, since Qatar is hosting the current round of negotiations. A second LNG tanker that had just taken on a cargo at Qatar turned around and was reportedly traveling in circles, afraid to pass through the Strait. A Japanese-flagged supertanker and another Singapore flagged ship chose to follow the route along Iran’s coast to pass through the Strait.

President Trump arrived in Turkey for the NATO Summit this morning. This will surely be a topic of conversation at the summit. It’s been reported that several key European countries have resolved that they will have to acquiesce to Iran and start paying fees for passage through the Strait, while President Trump will likely make a strong case for standing up to Iran, rather than yielding to it. President Trump is frustrated that much of the rest of the world is tired of being bullied by Iran, but reluctant to stand up to it. Meanwhile, I would expect that we will see another U.S. strike on Iran soon, now that we have new targets. U.S. intelligence surely has mapped new launch locations following these strikes that they can hit. President Trump does not want the war to escalate ahead of the midterm elections, and Iran knows that, but he also knows that he cannot appear weak by not responding. I will be shocked if he does not respond and respond soon, as has been his pattern.

Meanwhile, the market response – or lack thereof – speaks volumes about how investors see this war. They’re basically desensitized now to the headlines. They expect the status quo to continue, which means that commerce will find a way to move through the Strait. The markets care not whether tensions remain high, but they do care on whether trade is occurring for critical energy and fertilizer inventories through the Strait. That is happening, and investors have seen little at this point to indicate that the status quo is going to change. Energy and fertilizer supplies are assumed to be adequate until proven otherwise in the eyes of the markets.

Grain and oilseed prices surged on Monday, with traders taking on a similar sentiment toward the Ag commodities – assuming that weather and/or China will tighten supplies. The weather models are very split again this morning, with the normally reliable European model even increasing the Midwest heat risk a bit. Yet, this model has had an unusual hot bias this summer that has thus far proven to be wrong. Our partners at Commodity Weather Group pointed out this morning that the more skilled models are particularly far apart in their outlook for the 11- to 15-day forecast, with the European Ensemble’s being the hottest of them. In fact, the European model forecast for the July 7 – 21 period leans among the hottest on record for the period, which would correspond with the bulk of this year’s corn crop going through pollination. CWG looked at the forecast through a) tropical forcing/global wind, b) atmospheric teleconnections, and c) upper-level pattern analogs. It found better support for the more moderate WxNext2 model in two of the three above areas and leans closer to it in its forecast.

Cash market sources state this morning that China was buying yesterday, although USDA has not yet confirmed it with its flash sales reports. Anywhere from 5 to 10 cargoes of soybeans were believed to have been purchased. That’s not a surprise. It’s a long way from 25 mmt, but it’s a start, and it corresponds with the timing of when we would expect China to start buying. I have no doubt that China will buy soybeans and other Ag products. The only question is, will it buy more than what has already been factored into the balance sheets, and it will likely be months before we know whether that is the case. That said, Chinese buying is better than it not buying.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 28

August 28 – New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage today from the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium, due to provide his address in the next hour. The market will surely be parsing over his words with a fine-tooth comb, but it’s worth keeping in mind that his stated goal is for the Fed to provide less forward guidance and play a less prominent role, allowing the trade to “play the ball, not the referee.” With that said, my own expectation is to hear largely hawkish language as we did following the July Fed meeting as Warsh doubled down on the Fed’s stated commitment to its elusive 2.0% inflation mandate, which may drive volatility in rate expectations in the short-term, but keep in mind that expectations softened notably in the month that followed his hawkish comments. Not much has fundamentally changed since the Fed’s July meeting: inflation remains above target and the economy continues to expand, but a weak July payrolls report has introduced more concern around the labor side of the dual mandate. Yesterday’s jobless claims did give some renewed signs of resilience in the labor market to potentially aid in providing a permission signal to move rates higher, but I still expect the Fed to emphasize the need for patience. There is obviously plenty more impactful data on both inflation and the labor market sitting between now and the Fed’s September meeting, so much of the focus may also be attempting to discern longer-term changes to Fed strategy and positioning moving forward instead of just their immediate next step.

Mike CastleFri, 28 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 27

August 27 – The tech sector is breathing a collective sigh of relief, with the tech heavy Nasdaq poised for the biggest gains of the major indexes to start the day after impressive earnings results from Nvidia, Salesforce, and CrowdStrike after yesterday's close. This sigh of relief is also reflected in Wall Street’s fear index, with the VIX falling back below 15 for the first time this week. The dollar has slowly inched higher this week as it claws back portions of last week’s losses and is holding just above unchanged at the time of writing, trading just above the 99.16 level. Treasuries are quietly mixed to start the day, with 2-year yields down very slightly to trade at 4.222%, 10-year yields unchanged at 4.664%, and 30-year yields up slightly to trade at 5.188%. Crude oil is also just above unchanged to start the day, with nearby WTI up roughly 0.7% to trade near $82.50 while nearby Brent is up roughly 0.6% to trade near $87.50. The ags are largely mixed to start the day, with the wheat complex clinging to small gains while corn and soybeans are quietly lower.

Mike CastleThu, 27 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 26

August 26 – It’s a quiet day on Wall Street despite the tranche of data released today, with focus shifting to chip giant Nvidia’s earnings report due out after today’s close. The major stock indexes are all quietly lower at midday, down anywhere from 0.25% to 0.35% at the time of writing, while the VIX remains muted as it hovers near 15.6. The dollar has firmed through the morning, reflecting some additional hawkish sentiment after this morning’s inflation data, as it trades at 99.17, its highest level since last Wednesday’s selloff. Treasury yields are working higher as well, with 2-year yields up to 4.23%, 10-year yields up to 4.668%, and 30-year yields up to 5.186%. Crude oil has reversed course from this morning’s losses to now trade in the green amid rumblings of more escalations in the Black Sea region as well as a more bullish than expected D.O.E. report this morning, with nearby WTI now up 2.1% on the day to trade near $82.80 and nearby Brent up 0.6% to trade near $87.80. The ags are surging higher at midday, with the wheat complex now leading the way higher amid additional concerns regarding supply from the Black Sea following wire reports stating Putin is planning escalation with Ukraine, though details to this point are scarce.

Mike CastleWed, 26 Aug 2026, 16:59

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