Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 20

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 20 Jun 2023, 13:59

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

June 20 – The Dow Jones continues to pull back from last Thursday’s highs ahead of two days of testimony by Fed Chair Jerome Powell starting tomorrow; the Fed did pause their series of rate hikes last week (after ten straight increases) but surprised the trade a bit by indicating two more increases yet this year. That goes against equities traders’ assumptions/hopes that rates will start to fall back yet this calendar year. Inflation continues to prove sticky even as benchmark rates rose over the past year-plus.

China’s central bank cut their own benchmark interest rates this morning for the first time in ten months, as the country’s post-pandemic recovery shows signs of losing steam; authorities there appear to have some concerns about short-term property market recovery creating new bubble risks, and offsetting longer-term reforms. They have plenty more policy measures in their holster to stimulate the economy, and, like the U.S. Fed, are trying to balance out short and long-term issues.

U.S. Housing Starts in May made their biggest jump since 2016 at 1.631 million, above the average 1.4 mln trade estimate and 1.401 mln in April (itself revised higher from 1.340 mln previously), a sharp nearly 22% rise. The reading beat all estimates in the trade range and is the largest absolute figure in more than a year as well. Building Permits also beat estimates at 1.491 mln, up from the average 1.425 mln trade guess and 1.416 mln the month prior. Today’s data suggests that residential construction is set to help the economy in coming months, and re-iterates Fed Chair Powell’s comments from last week on a stabilizing housing market. Existing-home sales for May are out on Thursday, while new-home purchase data is out next week.

The long holiday weekend brought…no real change to Midwest weather forecasts? The weekend brought a nice rain event to Iowa and surroundings, but left notably dry pockets in the Dakotas and most of the eastern belt. Chances arrive this week in the west but largely skip the center-east, and longer-term forecasts (6-10 and 11-15 day maps left and right below from our lead forecasters Commodity Weather Group and Maxar, respectively) still show scattered rains favoring the northwestern and southeastern belt. The massive pattern shift we expected into the end of this month has not happened, while temperatures hold safely above-normal now through June and right up into the beginning of the key month of July. So, neither side of the grain trade really got what they wanted over the weekend; bulls are still looking for a hotter and drier outlook to support their 2012-type analog year, while the bears have yet to see the pattern shift and confirmation of at least decent conditions and yields heading into July. This afternoon’s Crop Progress Report will be highly anticipated to see what happened to U.S. corn and soybean ratings over the past week, after some concerning declines as of late.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

Grains & Oilseeds

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