Perspective: Morning Commentary for June 9

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 09 Jun 2022, 13:38

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

June 9 – Stock futures were mixed overnight as we move one day closer to updated inflation data, and one day closer to next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, although the intentions of policymakers have been clearly communicated in their effort to be transparent. The VIX is again trading near 25 as we move closer to these two pivotal events. The dollar index is trading near 102.6 this morning, while yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.04%, after hitting a fresh four-week high above 3.07% earlier in the session. Crude oil prices are 1% lower just below yesterday’s three-month highs, while the Ags are mostly weaker as well. Seasonal weakness led to active selling in wheat overnight, while corn and soybean prices posted just modest losses in the overnight session, with sellers wary of adding to short positions with weather maps leaning hotter and drier for late June and early July.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits rose to 229K in the week ending June 9, up from 202K the previous week, and above analyst expectations that they would rise to 210K during the week. This increased the four-week moving average to 215K claims, up from 207K the previous week. Yet, longer-term continuing claims remained unchanged at a 52-year low 1.306 million. Yes, we’re seeing a modest uptick in people losing their jobs, but we have not yet seen an increase in the difficulty of those people to find their next job in this tight job market. That probably needs to happen to slow wage inflation pressures on the economy, which means the economy may need to feel some pain to cure what ails it – high inflation. We should get updated inflation data from the consumer data tomorrow morning.

There’s been no breakthrough in the talks to open humanitarian corridors for food-based commodities to flow out of Ukrainian ports. That’s not a surprise. Turkey is facilitating the talks, which appear to be primarily between it and Russia. Ukraine isn’t even involved in the talks at this point. In fact, Ukraine exposed a scheme today that indicates that grain that was produced and stored in Russian controlled areas of the Ukraine moves through Turkey. Ukraine’s ambassador to Turkey reports that he has information indicating that Russia takes the grain from occupied areas of his country, ship it to Sevastopol, where it is then moved to Russian ports. After that, fake documents are created to indicate that it is Russian grain. The grain is then shipped to Turkey where it can be consumed or shipped elsewhere. Turkey has been informed of the scheme, but it has thus far not taken any apparent steps to stop the grain’s movement. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s two primary grain export facilities remain in the control of Ukraine. Russia has sought to take control of Odessa and Mykolaiv, but it has been unsuccessful at doing so. It has also attempted to shell both ports, doing considerable damage to at least one of the terminals at Mykolaiv. Russia continues to insist that sanctions must be removed before it allows grain to flow from these ports, even though it says that it is doing nothing to prevent Ukraine from opening its ports. The West remains determined not to lift the sanctions, but it is instead continuing to add to the sanctions against Russia.

USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE crop report tomorrow at 11 a.m. Chicago time. Changes to various numbers on USDA’s domestic and global balance sheets should be minor in this report, although they can communicate to the market something about the agency’s leanings. Changes in U.S. corn and soybean acreage and yields is not expected in this report, if USDA holds to its patterns of the past, but then again, it broke tendency in May when it cut its corn yield. USDA is expected to adjust its winter wheat production estimate. The trade expects the small crop to get a bit smaller. The July report will provide USDA’s next opportunity for significant movement. It will update spring wheat acres on June 30, which are expected to shift modestly smaller, but it will also provide its first yield estimate for the spring crop in the July 12 report.

The period between USDA’s June 30 acreage and stocks reports, and its July 12 WASDE report should be a pivotal time for seeing if the triple-ridge weather pattern I outlined yesterday carries into July, and whether it shows the strength and sustainability to adversely impact corn pollination, which should be focused on two weeks in late July this year. This year’s corn crop looks good, as illustrated by Monday’s USDA crop progress report. But a large part of it was planted in a two-week window, and it is behind schedule. The anticipated late June warmup will be good for helping the crop catch up, but it will still be pollinating in a narrow window. That’s good if the anticipated late-June weather pattern breaks down during that period, but it’s bad if it does not. As such, that period a week either side of the Fourth of July holiday will again likely be a significant time for the grain and oilseed markets.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

Grains & Oilseeds

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