Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 16

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 16 Mar 2023, 13:43

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 16 – Stock futures were again under pressure this morning as traders worry about the potential contagion from the known bank failures to this point, as many questions remain over the health of western banks. The VIX is trading near 27 at this hour, reflecting elevated fear levels on Wall Street that tends to make traders wary of building ownership in the so-called riskier assets. The dollar is trading weaker this morning near 104.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.42, after holding above yesterday’s five-week lows. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.90%, after making six-month lows on Wednesday. Crude oil prices are nearly 2% lower this morning, while grain and oilseed prices are mostly lower as well as traders remain wary of taking on risk.

The Swiss National Bank gave a lifeline to Credit Suisse today by extending a loan of up to $54 billion to the troubled bank, who’s problems go beyond the recent rise in interest rates. Reuters reports that the move came after Swiss authorities provided assurance that the bank met “the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks.” The loan buys time for the bank to carry out its restructuring plan. Some analysts now speculate that the easing of concerns surrounding Credit Suisse will allow the European Central Bank to proceed with planned rate hikes, although there are also reports that the ECB informed European Union leadership that other European banks currently remain vulnerable.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is expected to testify before the Senate Finance Committee today that the U.S. banking system “remains sound.” Released remarks she prepared for the scheduled budget hearing say that “decisive and forceful” actions taken this week to shore up public confidence in the banking system underscore its resolve to protect depositors. Her remarks state, “I can reassure the members of the committee that our banking system remains sound, and that Americans can feel confident that their deposits will be there when they need them.” That makes all of us feel better, because we all worry about losing the money we’ve worked hard to accumulate. As such, most Americans took comfort from reports that all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank would be backed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, whether they were insured or not. But is that what is really best long-term? If all deposits are backed by the government, what prevents unethical managers from being irresponsible in managing the bank by directing funds into risky strategies or perhaps channeling funds into unscrupulous directions, knowing the government will replace the funds? This is a slippery slope. It’s one thing to guarantee properly insured deposits. It’s another to guarantee all deposits.

First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 192K in the week ending March 11, down from 212K the previous week, and below analyst expectations of 205K. This dropped the four-week moving average to 196.5K claims, down from 197.25K the previous week, keeping the moving average below 200K. Continuing claims for the week ending March 4 fell by 29K to 1.684 million, with the four-week moving average at 1.676 million. This week’s report again re-emphasizes the tightness of the U.S. jobs market, suggesting that wage inflation will continue to be a major problem continuing to support overall inflation, and a pause in the rate hikes – even though the Fed may deem it necessary to support the banks – risks making that inflation problem worse.

Housing starts jumped to an annualized rate of 1.450 million in February, up from analyst expectations of 1.315 million. Furthermore, the January numbers were revised to 1.321 million, up from 1.309 originally. Permits for new housing starts surged to an annualized rate of 1.524 million, up from 1.339 million in January and above analyst expectations of 1.340 million. This too suggests that the Fed needs to stay the course with its monetary tightening, even though the bank problems may make it difficult to do so.

USDA confirmed another sale of 25.2 million bushels of U.S. corn to China this morning, bringing this week’s total to more than 75 million bushels. These sales are expected to show up in next Thursday’s weekly USDA export sales report. The sales are all for current-year delivery as China has to dramatically pull back on the scope of surplus rice stocks that it makes available to livestock feeders this year. The fresh demand also draws more attention to the shrinking supply of Argentine corn, with some private production estimates now dropping into the low 30s million metric tons, amid planting delays that increase risks for Brazil’s safrinha corn crop. Meanwhile, negotiations continue over the extension of the Ukraine export initiative, with the current agreement expiring this weekend. The agreement is expected to be extended for at least 60 days, but significant tensions remain that increase the risks that we could see interruptions in commodity movement out of the region. Those tensions increased this week when a Russian military jet downed a U.S. drone over international waters in the Black Sea, and as Russia now rushes to seek to recover the drone. All of these factors simply confirm that commodity risks in the Black Sea Region are rising rather than declining.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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