Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 23 Mar 2026, 13:40

March 23 – Stock futures surged and crude oil prices plummeted earlier this morning after President Trump posted on social media that talks with Iran have been very good over the past two days, and that he had therefore ordered U.S. forces to limit strikes on Iran over the next five days. Then a quick partial reversal was noted after Iran posted that no such talks occurred. Welcome to the “fog of war” when both sides utilize the media to position versus the other side, and there’s usually a healthy mixture of truth and fiction in reports released by both sides seeking to impact the outcome in one’s favor. The VIX plummeted from a high near 31 early this morning to a low near 20, before settling near 25 at this hour as stock futures posted a large swing and increased volatility. The dollar index is trading near 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.38% after falling from an eight-month high above 4.44% this morning to a brief low near 4.30%. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.89%, after hitting a nine-month high near 4.02% earlier this morning that plummeted briefly to a low near 3.80%. WTI crude oil is trading near $91, within a $17 range that saw prices fall briefly as low as $84.37 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets followed crude oil on the fast-paced ride, but they are currently mixed to modestly lower.

President Trump posted this morning that the U.S. and Iran had seen two days of “very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” As a result, he stated that he had ordered the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of ongoing talks. Iran media then released a statement that there had not been direct or indirect contact with “President Trump” (that would never happen anyway), and that President Trump is trying to “buy time” in the war. It went on to say that Trump withdrew from power plant strikes after Iran’s “firm warning” that it would hit Asian power facilities.

Welcome to the “fog of war” when both sides use the available media seeking to impact the final result. All parties involved in any war are operating on two fronts – the battleground front, as well as the public opinion front. There’s likely a mixture of truth and positioning to be found in most public comments made by officials. The challenge is to test what is said with what is observed. The regime in Iran knows that it is overpowered militarily, but it still hangs onto its ability to create fear, while outlasting the American public’s tolerance of war. It must sustain its power base in the event that it is able to survive so that it will still have an ability to carry out its objectives stealthily after this war is over. On the other hand, President Trump is aware of the public’s distaste for war and inflated prices, and its potential impact on the midterm elections. He wants to end it sooner rather than later, but he also doesn’t want his legacy to be that he failed to finish the job, leaving enough behind that Iran builds and even stronger threat to the United States for the future. As such, everything stated by both sides must be tested by the events that actually occur. President Trump reportedly told Fox Business’ Maria Bartiromo this morning that we could see a deal with Iran as soon as five days or less, and that the latest talks occurred last night. It would be foolish to set the expectations of five days if something significant isn’t happening, but again, we’ll know more in five days.

What we do know is that this morning’s developments open the door to the possibility that we will soon have more certainty in the Middle East. Energy and fertilizer prices would not be expected to immediately return to prewar levels – there’s been too much infrastructure damage occur to have that happen. But we would expect to see volatility ease from current levels, with reduced upside risk from the unknown. It would take some weeks for wells to be restarted, and of course some infrastructure will need to be rebuilt. A worst case scenario would suggest that some infrastructure could take two to three years to rebuild, although we’d likely see alternative production seek to fill the gap in the mean time if that were the case. The bottom line is that the war will likely have a long tail, albeit a likely less volatile one. Nonetheless, energy and fertilizer supplies will likely be negatively impacted for a while.

We should see the EPA’s final RVO requirements for 2026 & 2027 biofuel by Friday’s “Celebration of Ag” event at the White House. Probably one of the bigger risks would be if the RVO were trimmed for this year, since a quarter of the year is already past, due to energy inflation worries ahead of the midterm elections. That’s not a prediction, but a statement of risk. A trade deal with China looks to be delayed until the Iran war is “over.” Meanwhile, China will increase its weekly wheat auction allotments to 800,000 metric tons, since demand from both mills and the feed industry is so strong. Market rumors suggest that it may soon start auctioning off older supplies of rice as well. This is China’s way of managing rising corn prices. China came into this year with an estimated 40 mmt of older wheat and 50 mmt of older rice in its reserves that needed to be rotated out. That doesn’t mean that China might not offer to buy corn in a trade deal, but it does mean that China’s not in a position where it needs to do so at this time.

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.