Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 24 Mar 2022, 13:29

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

March 24 – Stock futures posted modest gains overnight as NATO leaders hold an emergency meeting on the one-month anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Yet, that modest strength comes at the expense of the commodity sector, which saw light selling overnight. The VIX is trading just above 23 this morning, reflecting easing fears on Wall Street as the war rages on in Ukraine. The dollar index is trading near 98.9, with yields on 10-year Treasuries firming to trade near 2.38%, which is just below yesterday’s 34-month high near 2.42%. Crude oil prices are posting modest losses after posting fresh two-week highs overnight, while the Ags are modestly lower as well.

It's been one month since Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Russia expected to sweep across Ukraine in a few days, but it currently occupies a relatively small percentage of the country. Unfortunately, its bombing campaign stretches across much of the country, and it has gained control of most of its ports. That bombing campaign has not broken the spirit of the Ukrainian people, but it has struck at the heart of the country’s infrastructure and economy. The war continues to be financed by Russian energy sales, but too many countries are too dependent on that crude oil and natural gas to make that break, which continues to support the lingering war. Look for NATO to impose more sanctions in today’s meeting, as it tries to tighten the noose on Russia’s economy, while ramping up pressure on Putin from within his leadership circle. NATO will also take steps to bolster its own military defense to discourage Russia from advancing into any of its member countries, while also sending more military aid to Ukraine to help it to defend itself. So, the war rages on within Ukraine, along with the adverse impacts of that war on commodity production, while the rest of the world takes steps to prevent it from spreading beyond Ukraine’s borders.

The debate continues to revolve around the scope of crop planting, production and harvesting that will be accomplished in Ukraine this year, since that country has become such a vital food producer in the world in recent years. Ukraine’s deputy minister of Agricultural Policy and Food provided an optimistic outlook today, stating that his country’s farmers are ready and prepared to plant this year’s crops. In fact, he stated that the spring planting campaign has already begun on 2% of Ukraine’s acreage as weather turns more favorable. He stated that farmers have begun to plant spring wheat and oats, and that they will soon be planting vegetables. While admitting that some fields have been mined, he states that these are largely not critical for crop production. Other local analysts have been less optimistic, while we remain pessimistic overall regarding Ukraine’s ability to harvest enough to see notable exports over the next 12 to 18 months. One local analyst stated that 35% of the arable ground will be unavailable for planting this year due to Russian occupation, land mines, etc. Other local estimates place planted acreage at 50% of typical levels, while we believe that is an optimistic number if the war rages on a few more weeks. The Ukrainian people have a “can do” attitude. They’ve proven that. But resources will be severely restricted, and many obstacles will need to be overcome. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m trying to be realistic.

Durable goods orders fell 2.2% month-on-month in February, down from 1.6% gains in January and below expectations that orders would fall by 0.5%. Much of the disappointment came from the transportation sector. Durable goods orders minus transportation fell by 0.6% month-on-month in February, down from 0.8% gains in January and below analyst expectations of 0.5% gains. Core capital goods orders that provide a reflection of expansion in the business sector fell by 0.3% month-on-month in February, down from 1.3% gains the previous month and below analyst expectations of 0.4%. The above month-on-month numbers were made worse by upward revisions in the January numbers. Other data today showed that first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell to 187K in the week ending March 19, down from 215K the previous week and below analyst expectations of 210K. Last week’s numbers were the lowest since September 1969 when they were at 182K. Continuing claims fell to 1.350 million, which is the lowest since January 1970. The jobs sector is extremely tight, leading to wage inflation.

USDA’s daily flash export sales report today included another 11.7 million bushels of current year soybeans sold to “unknown destinations.” The trade will assume that is more business with China. U.S. soybeans remain quite competitive with Brazilian supplies, but primarily in the June and beyond window. Brazil will continue to ship soybeans ahead of the U.S. harvest six months from now, but we expect U.S. shipments to increasingly make up a larger share of shipments to China and elsewhere as we move through the summer, boosting our exports while shrinking our ending stocks projections, while also increasing the need to expand acreage of the 2022 crop.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.