Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 24

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 24 Mar 2026, 13:25

Today's Perspective Video: Is the End Close? Sorting Through Conflicting Reports

March 24 – Volatility remains the name of the game as Wall Street attempts to make sense out of the “fog of war” of conflicting headlines emerging from the Iran war. Stock futures are pointing lower this morning amid the uncertainty as inflation risks linger due to the war. The VIX is trading near 27, reflecting elevated concerns on Wall Street, while the dollar index is trading near 99.4. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.40% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.91%. Crude oil prices are trading near $92 per barrel. Grain prices traded modestly higher overnight, following the crude oil market, while the soybean complex reversed Monday’s action to push lower.

Iran sent waves of missiles into Israel today, providing a reminder that the war continues unabated in the Middle East despite talk of productive negotiations. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard remains emphatic that no negotiations are taking place with the United States. That may or may not be true. As I said yesterday, one has to take everything that one hears in war with a grain of salt. It’s possible that President Trump’s statements were meant to direct the media and public’s attention in one place while he prepares to strike in another place, so to speak. It wouldn’t be the first time that he’s done so. At the same time, it’s possible that negotiations are occurring, but with a faction other than the Revolutionary Guard. That scenario is entirely possible, but here again, I would expect any group other than the Revolutionary Guard to deny that such negotiations are taking place until they are complete, for their own safety, fearing retaliation from the Guard. But even if negotiations with the Revolutionary Guard are taking place, I would expect them to deny it. Their survival and future power requires that the people whom they hope will follow them after this war believe that any end to the war was on their terms dictated by the Guard. Negotiations could be seen as a sign of weakness that they would not want to display to their followers.

One thing that we do know though is that President Trump set the expectations for something to move the needle in the days ahead – perhaps this week. That has the markets eagerly waiting for whatever that might be, hoping that it will be a move toward peace. Such a move would not immediately restore the flow of energy and fertilizer products through the Strait of Hormuz or restore the production and supply of such. But it would begin to restore some sense of certainty, and that is what the market is most craving currently.

Treasury yields continue to trend higher, albeit with significant swings from day to day. Nonetheless, yields on 10-year Treasuries hit fresh eight-month highs this week, while yields on 2-year Treasuries hit fresh nine-month highs. The common thinking is that the Treasury market reflects expectations for greater inflation pressures in the months ahead due to rising energy and fertilizer prices, and there is some truth to that. But they also continue to reflect rising fiscal debt by the U.S. government. This year’s budget deficit – expenses over revenue – is expected to be around $2 trillion. That will need to be financed by newly issued debt certificates placed on the market. That’s on top of roughly $10 trillion in maturing debt certificates that will need to be refinanced over the next 12 months. Increasing the supply of anything relative to demand decreases that asset’s value. Decreasing the value of debt certificates by design increases their yields, seeking to increase demand for the assets.

Crude oil prices remain quite volatile as the market seeks to manage changing day-to-day expectations about how long the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. Crude oil, product and liquified natural gas shipments through the Strait are essentially at a halt now, outside of Iraq’s own shipments. Iran hopes to be able to develop a protection racket whereby countries pay it handsomely for the promise that its shipments will be able to pass through the Strait unharmed. The required payments are said to be as high as $2 million per vessel, but we really don’t know, as they are assessed very privately on a vessel-by-vessel basis. Surrounding Arab producers see these charges as totally unacceptable – seeing it as a sovereignty issue, and a weaponization of an essential international trade route.

A couple of India cargoes were seen passing through the Strait, along with a few Chinese shipments. Otherwise, hundreds of ships remain locked in place, afraid to pass through the Strait, and essentially also unavailable for global use for transport elsewhere in the world. Thus far the fuel shortage hasn’t hit the United States, where we are essentially energy independent, although we still export light crude while importing heavy crude that many of our refineries were designed to process. U.S. prices nonetheless are elevated due to the fact that we are still part of the world market. Roughly 20 million barrels per day flowed through the Strait prior to the war. Iran continues with its shipments, while Saudi Arabia is moving close to 6 mbpd. In the end, we’re still looking at a global shortfall of 12 – 13 mbpd, which is being felt globally, but most intensely in the Asian market.

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