Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 25

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 25 Mar 2026, 13:26

Today's Perspective Video: Is the End Close? Sorting Through Conflicting Reports

March 25 – Stock futures rallied and crude oil fell late Tuesday into the night on hopes that the Iran war was on the cusp of a ceasefire. Stock futures came off their highs, and crude oil off its lows, this morning when the chances for that anticipated ceasefire seemed to decrease. The VIX continues to trade near 26 this morning, reflecting heightened anxiety on Wall Street, while the dollar index trades near 99.3. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.33%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.86%. Crude oil prices are trading near $88 at this hour, up several dollars from their session low, but still considerably below their wartime high above $119 per barrel. The grains followed crude oil lower, while soybean prices are firmer ahead of Friday’s anticipated announcement of the Trump Administration’s final rules for the biofuel program.

Israeli media broke the story of a possible ceasefire agreement late on Tuesday. It reported that we were on the cusp of a possible one-month ceasefire that would allow further negotiation on a 15-point peace plan. The reports indicated that the 15 points included: 1) automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions, 2) the dismantling of Iran’s existing nuclear capabilities, 3) Iran would vow to “never seek” nuclear weapons, 4) preventing enrichment of any nuclear material on Iranian territory, 5) delivery of enriched uranium to the International Atomic Energy Administration, 6) the decommissioning and destroying of nuclear sites at Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, 7) full access for the IAEA to all information regarding the nuclear program, 8) Iran abandons the use of ‘proxies,’ 9) a halt to the funding and arming of militias in the Middle East, 10) keep the Strait of Hormuz open without any closure, 11) postponement of a decision on Iran’s ballistic missile program, 12) ballistic missiles can only be used for defense 13) the lifting of all sanctions on Iran, 14) support for the development of a civilian nuclear program, 15) the automatically cancel the threat of reimposition of sanctions.

Reports this morning suggest that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard rejects any idea of a ceasefire. Again, based on my comments yesterday, that may or may not be true. What is stated in war is often different from what is actually occurring. But I wouldn’t be surprised if the Revolutionary Guard rejected it. Their hatred for Israel and the United States is so intense that it has often led to suicidal missions over the years. But this does raise the question about who we’re negotiating with? We know that there are different factions within Iran. The Revolutionary Guard has certainly been in control prior to the war, and it is still believed to be in control of remaining weapons – at least a sufficient supply to continue to maintain a threat. But if we’re negotiating with a different faction, that may suggest that this different faction is gaining power of some sort within Iran. Then that raises the question of a possible civil war within Iran. Meanwhile, there were also reports on Tuesday that Saudi Arabia’s prince called on President Trump to finish the job in Iran, combined with other news reports that some of Iran’s surrounding neighbors are coming closer to joining in the fight against Iran. Again, we must take everything that we hear in the “fog of war” with a grain of salt, but that wouldn’t surprise me, considering how this war is playing out currently.

President Trump ordered the deployment of between 1,000 and 3,000 of the 82^nd Airborne Division to the Middle East on Tuesday, according to news reports. Paratroopers in the 82^nd Airborne are trained as an immediate response force utilized to quickly capture and hold territory. This raised speculation that the United States is preparing to implement ground troops in the war. Again, that may or may not be the case. This may be an attempt to intimidate Iran to follow through on ceasefire negotiations. But the president also knows that he’d better not threaten to use a resource available to him unless he’s also willing to utilize that resource.

What do the markets care about? Wall Street primarily cares about two things – a) when will the Strait of Hormuz open, and b) how much infrastructure damage will have been done to energy and fertilizer facilities when this is over? The greatest threat to the Strait of Hormuz is not mines in the water, nor is it the Iranian navy, which sits at the bottom of the ocean. The greatest threat is airborne drones and missiles that can hit ships from some distance inland in Iran. That threat will remain until we get the last drone and/or missile destroyed, or until the Revolutionary Guard agrees to abide by a ceasefire. At that point energy and fertilizer will be able to flow again, and a damage assessment will be able to be fully conducted to determine lost production while repairs are made. This war will have a long tail after the fighting stops, but the first step is getting the fighting stopped. Many countries in the Middle East – Israel and other Arab countries included – want the Iranian threat eliminated once and for all before this mission is completed. But that is a tall order to fill, and it may not be possible. This war may deal President Trump’s hopes of hanging onto Congress in the midterm elections a big blow, but there are many voices here in the States and in the Middle East telling him that it is worth that risk to finally eliminate the Iranian threat of the past 47 years.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 5

August 5 – The Dow Jones is ripping higher for yet another session, up safely over 500 points at the time of this writing to carve out another record high; the S&P and NASDAQ are a bit less enthusiastic but the former is still making its own record high, while the latter is less than 500 points off its own top thanks to a strong ongoing week of trade. The dollar is churning lower this morning in an effort to re-test Monday’s 1 ½-month low, while the ten-year note has flipped higher in the mid-morning hours. The CME FedWatch tool interesting has market odds of a quarter-point rate hike next month coming closer to a 50-50 proposition as crude oil prices decline.

Mike CastleWed, 05 Aug 2026, 15:19

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