Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 26

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 26 Mar 2026, 12:56

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

March 26 – The Dow Jones has been mostly creeping higher this week after a five-plus month low on Friday, but futures are indicating that the benchmark index will give back around half that gain in early trade; a $4/bbl crude oil gain is weighing on the market with WTI on the route back towards the $100/bbl mark, as war uncertainty remains. NASDAQ and S&P 500 futures are also pointing towards roughly 1% declines. President Trump threatened Iran in another Truth Social post this morning, and Gulf countries are readying to defend themselves, but Iran continues to say they are reviewing an American proposal to end the war. The U.S. dollar is rebounding back towards recent highs while treasuries increase on ceasefire pessimism as well. The VIX is also on the rise at a 27-point reading.

Israel’s defense minister this morning said that Iran’s Naval Commander was killed in an overnight airstrike; the commander had been in an apartment hide-out in a southern Iranian port city and was presumably playing a key role in shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Israel and Iran continue to strike targets on the opposing sides, with air defenses in Kuwait and the UAE responding to Iranian missiles and drones overnight. Peace talks are still up in air with the U.S. circulating a 15-point peace plan and Iran still looking for reparations and control over the Strait.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 21 came in right on the average trade estimate at 210k, up from 205k the week prior; Continuing Claims for the week ending March 14 fell short of the average 1849k guess at 1819k, with the week prior revised lower as well, from 1857k to 1851k. That continuing claims figure was the lowest in almost two years. Layoffs remain low for U.S. companies despite a host of fresh economic headwinds.

The White House announced new dates for President Trump’s China meeting with President Xi, on May 14-15 – that’s six weeks behind the original schedule. Xi will reciprocate that with a trip to the U.S. at a later date. They also announced a temporary waiver of federal anti-smog regulations on seasonal gasoline blends, that opens up nationwide sales of E15, but only for 20 days starting on May 1, and the same measure has been issued ahead of May 1 in each of the past three years. RVO volumes are expected tomorrow during the “Celebration of Ag” event.

Trade expectations for next Tuesday’s much-anticipated Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports show fairly bearish estimates across the board, compared to USDA Ag Forum numbers for the former and compared to year-ago levels for the latter. This morning, the USDA reported export sales of 47.9 million bushels of corn and 24.6 million bushels of soybeans on the week ending March 19; the former was near the high end of trade estimates wither the latter exceeding all guesses. The big number was in meal with 508k tonnes of old-crop sales and 122k new-crop, as 2025/26 meal and oil sales continue to seasonally run 3-4% ahead of current USDA estimates.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

Grains & Oilseeds

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