Perspective: Morning Commentary for March 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 07 Mar 2024, 14:00

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

March 7 – Dow Jones futures are indicating follow-up gains after yesterday’s rebound, with Nvidia shares set to hit more record highs and ongoing indicators for the U.S. labor market remaining fairly solid. Fed Chair Powell will appear before Congress again today, but he is not expected to issue any surprises after the Fed’s stance was laid out fairly clearly yesterday. The marketplace is still looking for rate cuts later this calendar year (by June-July according to the CME’s FedWatch tool), though maybe still a bit sooner than the cautious Fed has in mind.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 2 came in very close to the average trade guess at 217,000 (the average estimate was 216k), with the week prior revised to 217k as well, up from 215k previously. Continuing claims for the previous week (ending February 24) did exceed estimates at 1906k (above the 1880k guess), though the week prior was revised down from 1905k to 1898k. That 1.9 million-plus figure is the highest since a mid-November spike, that itself was the highest figure since November 2021, when claims were still coming down post-COVID. Still, this morning’s unemployment numbers show a generally healthy U.S. labor market in the face of somewhat-elevated interest rates. Tomorrow morning will bring the U.S. February jobs report; nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise 200k, compared to a sharp 353k rise in Jan, while the U.S. unemployment rate is seen steady in Feb at 3.7%.

The U.S. trade balance for January showed a $67.4 billion deficit, nearly four billion below the average trade estimate, with December revised lower from $-62.2 bln to $-64.2 bln as well. The January deficit is the widest since April due to a pickup in the value of imports (up 1.1% on the month), compared to only a +0.1% rise in exports.

The most-traded May CBOT corn contract pushed through the 20-day moving average last night and made impressive progress into the morning hours, the most bullish technical move in four months despite any real fundamental help; corn has at least shown the most proclivity to rebound over the last two weeks in the face of weak soybean and wheat price action. The grain market was generally unfazed by decent export sales numbers this morning, with corn sales in the middle of the trade estimate range at 43.7 million bushels (up slightly from last week and a three-week high), and soybeans beating expectations at 22.5 mbu (a ten-week high). Cumulative corn sales are basically right on a seasonal pace to meet the USDA’s export estimate for 2023/24 (2.1 bln bu), with soybeans slightly behind their own pace to hit the 1.72 bln bu mark. The government will likely punt on any changes to their domestic S&D numbers in tomorrow’s March S&D, with the main changes expected to be cuts in Brazilian corn and soybean production figures. The bigger fundamental reports coming up will be the March 28 planting intentions and quarterly stocks reports and the May USDA S&D; those coupled with the arrival of U.S. spring planting will shape the long-term trend for CBOT grain markets that have slogged through the winter thus far.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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