Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 1

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 01 May 2026, 13:28

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

May 1 – Wall Street just closed out one of its best months in years, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closing at fresh record highs yesterday. Stock futures are pointing to a mostly higher, albeit relatively quiet, open to the session, while the VIX continues to cool as it carves out a fresh low since early February, well before the conflict with Iran began. The dollar is adding to yesterday’s losses, breaking below the 98 mark to hover around 97.9 at the time of writing, a two-week low. Treasuries are looking at a quietly mixed start, with 10-year yields a tick below unchanged, trading just under 4.39%, while 2-year yields are slightly above unchanged, trading north of 3.89%. Crude oil is modestly weaker to start the day, with nearby WTI down a bit over 2% to trade just above $103 at the time of writing, while nearby Brent futures are off a more modest 0.2% to trade just above $110. The ags are looking at a mostly higher start to the day, with the wheat complex being the biggest story of the week amid ongoing weather issues on the U.S. Plains, the northern portions of which saw below-freezing temperatures again last night.

The market continues to watch developments in the conflict, with Iran reportedly sending an updated proposal for negotiations with the U.S. to Pakistani officials today, though details of what, if anything, has changed have not been published as of the time of writing. The stalemate continues, with reports yesterday that President Trump was to be briefed on a potential renewal of strikes if no breakthroughs are made, and Iran expectedly stating they would respond to any such renewal with attacks of their own. The Senate voted yesterday to reject a War Powers Resolution for the sixth time as we pass the 60-day mark since the initial strikes, though Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth yesterday argued that the 60-day mark has not yet arrived, given the April ceasefire effectively pausing active hostilities and thus the timeline. So, we head into another weekend with the market closed for two days without much fresh movement, though traders will undoubtedly continue to keep a close eye on headlines as they arise.

Total assets in the Fed’s balance sheet fell to $6.700T in the week ending 4/29, breaking a stretch of nine consecutive weekly increases, albeit with a minor 0.11% drop. This is down 25.27% from the all-time high made four years ago, but clearly still elevated relative to pre-COVID levels, something that presumed incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has been a vocal critic of. Warsh made it clear in his testimony before the Senate Banking Committee that he will be pushing for “regime change” at the Fed, meaning traders may have to adjust what they’re watching in order to most accurately shape expectations for FOMC policy reaction moving forward. As of this morning, there’s still no fixed date for the full Senate confirmation vote to officially pave the way for Warsh to take the helm, but following the Senate Banking Committee approval on Thursday, expectations are to see a vote announced in the days ahead.

Another metric worth keeping a closer eye on is trimmed mean/median inflation, with Warsh noting his preference for these metrics as opposed to the Fed’s traditional favored metric, Core PCE. So, how did the trimmed mean metric perform relative to the hot traditional PCE readings seen yesterday? Dallas Fed’s Trimmed Mean PCE jumped to a 2.9% year-over-year rise in March, marking the hottest rate of advance seen since August 2025, while February was revised upward from its previous 1.8% reading to sit at 2.0%. This was notably cooler than the 3.5% year-over-year headline and 3.2% core increase, but still well above the Fed’s 2.0% mandate.

The graphic below provides a look at how these different PCE readings have performed relative to one another over the last decade or so. As you can see, both headline and core PCE have held above the Fed’s 2.0% mandate for over five years now, with their last time below this mark being in February 2021. However, trimmed mean PCE has been at or below this level nine times during that span. If Kevin Warsh’s stated preference for trimmed mean and median measures plays a large role in the Fed’s reaction moving forward, policymakers may interpret underlying inflation as closer to target than traditional gauges suggest. That shift could lower the bar for easing, particularly if volatile components continue to keep headline and core readings elevated.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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