Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 23

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 23 May 2022, 13:25

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

May 23 – Stock futures pushed higher overnight, in a general “risk-on” mode to start the week. The test will be whether Wall Street can sustain that new-found optimism through the day, and into the week, following it’s weeks-long obsession with fear. The VIX is trading near 29 this morning, reflecting elevated fear levels, although the index thus far remains below the pivotal 30 level. The dollar index is notably lower this morning near 102.3, as it trades near four-week lows. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 2.84%. The broader commodity sector found support from the overnight “risk-on” sentiment on Wall Street, but crude oil prices have slipped modestly lower this morning, while the Ags were mostly higher, lifted by a rally in wheat prices following last week’s sharp break.

The European Central Bank seeks to end negative interest rates by September, with hopes that it can move into positive territory beyond that point. Today’s announcement reflects a sharp reversal of policy from its previous stance that basically ruled out any rate hikes this year. The ECB’s current deposit rate is -0.5%, and it’s been below zero since 2014. The U.S. Federal Reserve flirted with the idea of negative interest rates at one point, but a study done by the St. Louis Fed revealed that negative rates tend to stymie economic growth, rather than to stimulate it. Headline inflation for the European economic block sits at 7.4% currently, which is far above its 2% target. The ECB’s move may allow the euro to strengthen in the months ahead, which could then allow the dollar to pull back further from its recent 19-year highs – all else being equal.

Beijing recorded more daily Covid infections than Shanghai for the first time on Sunday, resulting in tighter restrictions for the capital city, even as Shanghai slowly eases restrictions. Nearly one in nine cases are asymptomatic, making it a greater challenge to identify and to control, while also saying something about the lack of severity of the overwhelming majority of the cases with the current variant. Yet, China is committed to maintaining its zero-tolerance policy toward Covid through at least October, when its Congress meets again. Even so, new cases continue to show up in lockdown areas in Beijing. Efforts to control the virus are going a bit better in Shanghai, where Covid numbers are at a two-month low, with “just” 560K people still in high-risk lockdown zones, which is roughly 2.2% of the city’s population. Even so, rail passenger numbers are just 10% of pre-pandemic levels in Shanghai, while up to 10K people per day are said to be leaving Shanghai each day to escape the conditions. Up to a fourth of China’s population is directly impacted by the lockdowns and restrictions, but that includes some of the most important economic centers in the country.

Ukraine hopes to export 1.5 million metric tons of grain this month, up from just over 1 mmt in April. I think that 1.5 mmt may be overly optimistic, but they could come close to that target, as they continue to make improvements in the logistics necessary to move grain over land to the west. Even so, that’s still less than a fourth of their monthly exports prior to the war. Spring planting is in its final stages in Ukraine amid shortages of fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy reports today that Ukraine farmers have acquired 23.9K metric tons of crop protection chemicals thus far, which is 75% of the needed volume for the first half of this year. The total includes 15.5K tons of herbicides, which too is 75% of the needed volume. Farmers in Vinnytsia, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk have virtually all of the chemicals needed, while those in Zaporizhzhia have just 24% of the needed product, and Donetsk sits at 28%. These are areas that may struggle more with weed and pest control this year, that reduces yield potential.

Soybean traders focused on contra-seasonal strength in export demand over the past week or two, while corn took the negative side on spreads, as traders have few fears that we’ll run out of the feed grain before this fall’s harvest. I look for that focus to start shifting again this week to the 2022-23 balance sheet for corn as we count down the final week of planting in the month of May. Look for traders to start running the numbers following this afternoon’s USDA weekly crop progress report, figuring out how many corn acres will be planted late, increasing the risk of yield drag, and how many acres will not get planted at all, or possibly to another crop? The weather shifted to more of an active pattern again for much of the Midwest. Cooler readings will continue to slow drying. We should see warmer readings late in week #1 into early week #2, before cooler readings return once again. A lot of crops will be planted in less than desirable conditions to get it done. Of greatest risk is corn ground in the upper Red River Valley between North Dakota and Minnesota. Another focus point will be this morning’s weekly soybean export shipment total.

Grains & Oilseeds
Base Metals
Precious Metals
Digital Assets
Energy
Dairy
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products
Currencies
Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism. SAP is an “Approved International Trading Company” authorized to act as a “Spot Commodity Broker” under the Commodity Trading Act.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Dairy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Sugar
Meats & Livestock
Forest Products

Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.