Perspective: Morning Commentary for May 8

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Fri, 08 May 2026, 13:20

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Senior Commodities Economist

May 8 – A blowout Non-Farm Payrolls report capped off an impressive week of U.S. labor market data, bolstering optimism on Wall Street and allowing the market to look past escalations in the Middle East, with stock futures pointing to another strong open after losing steam late in yesterday's session. The VIX is also lower to start the day, reflecting the market’s lack of concern over these escalations, hovering around 16.9 at the time of writing. The dollar is reversing course from yesterday’s gains as it falls ~0.3% on the day to trade just below 98 again after closing near 98.26 yesterday. Treasuries are narrowly in the red as well, with 10-year yields trading at 4.37% and 2-year yields trading at 3.89%. Crude oil is trading mixed, with nearby WTI down 2.9% on the session to trade at $94.80 while nearby Brent remains slightly in the green near $100.30 at the time of writing, trading notably higher overnight but losing steam into this morning. The ags are mixed as well, appearing to take a bit of a breather after sharp losses during the week, with soybeans leading the grains and oilseeds higher at the break.

The U.S. economy added 115k jobs in April, sharply above market expectations of 62k and pointing to a U.S. labor market that continues to prove resilient despite the ongoing uncertainty. March was also revised higher, now at 185k versus the previously reported 178k, continuing to represent a 14-month high. However, February was revised notably lower, falling from the previously reported -133k to now sit at -156k, now the sharpest month of losses since December 2020. Private payrolls rose by 123k in April, while government payrolls fell by 8k, the seventh consecutive month of losses there. By sector, the biggest job gains in April were seen in health care (+37k), transportation and warehousing (+30k), and retail trade (+22k); the most notable losses were seen in information (-13k) and manufacturing (-2k).

This keeps the headline unemployment rate at 4.3%, matching market expectations and remaining on the low-end of historical levels. Digging in a bit deeper, there were some less rosy signals, with the labor force participation rate falling to 61.8% in April, now the lowest seen since October 2021, continuing the downtrend with the fifth consecutive monthly decline since November’s 62.5%. Additionally, the U-6 unemployment rate that also includes marginally attached workers and those working part-time for economic reasons because they can’t find a full-time role, rose to 8.2% in April from 8.0% in March, marking a four-month high. Amid the backdrop of phenomenal headline readings and a blockbuster earnings season, however, the market will be likely to look past these signs of looming issues today.

Average hourly earnings rose by 0.2% month-on-month, matching the month prior and coming in below the expected 0.3% rise; in year-on-year terms, this was a 3.6% increase, similarly below the expected 3.8%. These both point to a continued cooling, providing a silver lining in terms of underlying inflationary pressures. With the labor market providing largely better than expected signals this week, the market will now turn its attention to next week’s inflation data, with April CPI due out on Tuesday (5/12) and PPI following on Wednesday (5/13).

The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines the word ceasefire as “a military order to cease firing.” The action in the Middle East over the last 24 hours doesn’t exactly fit that bill, but nevertheless U.S. officials have confirmed the ceasefire with Iran remains in effect despite the renewed fighting. Similarly, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has heated up to its highest level of intensity since early April. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this morning that we should be getting an official response from Iran today in regard to the one-page memorandum to end the conflict, saying “the hope is it’s something that can put us into a serious process of negotiation.” Statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in the last hour don’t exactly suggest optimism in the peace process, but it’s important to keep in mind the need for both sides to maintain a tough image for their own constituencies. In the same press conference in Rome, Rubio stated the U.S. will not negotiate directly with Hezbollah and will instead focus on talks with the Lebanese government. Given the history of internal division and the government’s inability to control Iranian-linked Hezbollah, this may prove difficult to reach any real near-term peace, adding another layer of complexity to the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

The U.A.E. has come under Iranian attack yet again today, with their Ministry of Defense issuing a statement that their air defense systems intercepted two ballistic missiles and three drones launched from Iran, causing three moderate injuries. The statement also went on to list the totals that their air defenses have had to engage with since the beginning of the war: 2,263 drones, 551 ballistic missiles, and 29 cruise missiles. This fits with recent hardening rhetoric from the U.A.E. towards Iran, leading to unconfirmed speculation that the country may be considering taking a more active role in the war; some Iranian media outlets even pointed blame at the U.A.E. for yesterday’s strikes. There’s no credible evidence of this, but Iran’s retaliatory strikes on their neighbors have centered most heavily on the U.A.E., so it will be important to monitor how this evolves as tensions appear to heat back up.

Iran has also reportedly seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman, claiming the Barbados-flagged Ocean Koi “was trying to harm and disrupt oil exports by exploiting regional conditions.” The tanker was reportedly escorted to the southern coast of Iran. Al Jazeera reported this morning that the U.S. Navy also attacked an Iranian-flagged cargo ship overnight in the Strait of Hormuz, though we’ve not seen any confirmation from the American side as of writing. Regardless, both of these events highlight the ongoing risks to shipping in the region.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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