Perspective: Morning Commentary for November 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 15 Nov 2022, 14:00

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Matt Zeller

Senior Market Analyst

November 15 – Treasury yields are on the decline this morning with Dow Jones futures indicating a strong open, following the release of this morning “optimistic” PPI data, and providing more hope that the Fed will at least start to adjust its streak of hawkish moves; indications from Fed officials between the two key economic releases (CPI and PPI) are that the central bank will consider all that data and is willing to adjust course if needed. Wal-Mart shares are poised to add a chunk to DJIA gains by themselves, up almost 8% in pre-market trading after releasing better-than-expected third-quarter results.

Bloomberg News conducted a survey of 65 economists and the results released this morning show expectations for the U.S. economy to expand by 1.8% in 2022, 0.5% in 2023, and 1.4% in 2024; their GDP expectations for the next two quarters are lower than they were previously, with estimates for 2022 and 2023 CPI higher than the last survey. The report pegs the chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months at 65%...

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey regarding general business conditions came in at a +4.5 reading for November, up from -9.1 last month and well ahead of the average trade estimate for a -6.0; it was the first expansion in four months (a reading above zero indicates expansion). However, the NY Fed’s measure of activity for the next six months fell around four points to -6.1, the second-worst future reading since 2001.

However, the major economic release this morning was the October Producer Price Index, which advanced just 0.2% from September and 8.0% from last October – the former number was steady with the month prior and below expectations for a +0.4% gain, with the latter down from 8.4% in the month prior and below the average trade guess at 8.3%. All that comes on the heels of smaller-than-expected CPI data in October as well.

The U.S. dollar is sliding this morning on optimistic inflation data and a better outlook for China’s economy; Chinese stock markets rallied overnight following some policy adjustments and better cooperation between China and the U.S., as Presidents Biden and Xi held a long meeting yesterday. The commodities are failing to take advantage of those USD tailwinds today, mostly falling out of favor among speculators today with economic developments abound. Wheat is the leader to the downside this morning as most of the trade seems to agree that the Black Sea grain export agreement will be continued beyond the November 19 deadline, and (relatively) cheap Ukraine exports will continue to pick up with each additional month and undercut other global suppliers. U.S. corn, wheat, and soybeans are overpriced compared to the rest of the globe; China is buying the soybeans they need for now but they’ll switch over to Brazilian beans as soon as they can, and sales for other crops remain lethargic. Snow falling across the U.S. this week will at least aid wheat in some areas and help to refill the river system, but fundamental news (for the bulls in particular) is likely to remain slow for the grain markets in the near future.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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