Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 01 Oct 2021, 12:49

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

October 1 – Congratulations go out to Congress for keeping themselves funded…through December 3. President Biden signed a short-term appropriations bill to fund the government yesterday, just beating the deadline of midnight last night, and basically kicking that particular can (an actual, full-year funding agreement) down the road. Congress still needs to suspend or raise the U.S. debt ceiling in the next two weeks (deadline of October 18); democrats were attempting to combine those issues into the funding bill but were blocked by Senate Republicans.

The stock market appears largely non-plussed by the government, as is its tendency as of late, with Dow Jones futures indicating a solid open today for the new month and quarter. Major indices are looking to rebound from their worst September in a decade. The trade is more interested in inflation data released this morning, which largely came in as expected, likely not influencing Federal Reserve thinking either way. The Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure YoY Corn Price Index, showed a steady 3.6% increase in August for the third straight month – basically right in line with the average trade estimate. Personal income rose 0.2% in August with personal spending up 0.8%, both roughly matching expectations. Tons more economic data is on tap for the rest of the morning, including U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and multiple manufacturing and construction spending indices. Dow Jones futures are showing a 150 point rise as of the time of this writing.

WTI crude oil futures have cooled a bit into the end of the week, leaving Tuesday’s high with a bit of a double-top look along with early July highs near $77/bbl. OPEC+ is set to meet on Monday and the rumor is that the group will consider going beyond its existing deal to boost oil production by 400k barrels per day. Any additional production increases would take effect in November, with October output volumes set in their previous meeting. Overall energy prices remain supported world-wide, with economies recovering post-pandemic and supplies still lagging behind. We’ve seen crunches in China and Europe, with natural gas prices in the latter surging overnight.

Soybeans are facing a bit of a crossroads starting out the month, with the key spot November contract reversing course post-USDA yesterday for a 3 ½-month low. Not only did the government find another 80 million bushels from last season’s U.S. soybean crop, adding it to carryout overall, but the U.S. has missed most of the gut slot of the Gulf export season due to hurricane damages, and yield reports from the first quarter-plus of harvest are mostly running better than expected. Moreover, skyrocketing fertilizer prices no doubt have farmers leaning more towards soybeans (at the expense of corn) in early 2022 planting thoughts – especially if they’re grossing $1000/acre from current strong bean yields at elevated prices. There’s plenty of time for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction, but the current fundamental slant for the soybean market is a bearish one…

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Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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