Perspective: Morning Commentary for October 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 11 Oct 2022, 13:16

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

October 11 – Stock futures were generally under pressure overnight, although they firmed to near their session highs this morning. Traders continue to be wary of economic and geopolitical risks, choosing to believe that that proverbial “glass is half empty.” The VIX traded mostly between 33 and 34 overnight, although it dipped below 33 earlier this morning as stock futures erased much of their overnight weakness. The dollar index continues to consolidate near 113.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.93% this morning, after briefly probing above 4.0% overnight following a three-day holiday weekend. Yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.31%. The broader commodity market came under modest pressure overnight, largely on economic concerns. That resulted in crude oil prices pulling modestly lower, while the grain and oilseed markets pulled back from yesterday’s big gains tied to geopolitical risks in Ukraine.

The Bank of England is again playing catchup, trying to stem a sharp selloff in Britain’s government bond market by jumping in to purchase debt certificates. The BoE cited “material risk” to financial stability after pension companies were hit by the recent market turmoil. The central bank is buying up to 10 billion pounds of British gilts per day to include up to 5 billion pounds of index-linked bonds. This is the fifth time in a little over two weeks that the BoE has attempted to calm market turmoil, including verbal intervention at times. Global traders in the financial markets are watching, with some sense of nervousness that contagion could spread the problem to other markets.

Economic risks related to Covid are growing in China as well. Authorities hoped to be at zero-Covid for the meeting of the 20^th Congress starting this coming Sunday, but instead a new faster-spreading variant of Omicron appears to be spreading following last week’s holiday. More than 2,000 Covid cases were reported Monday, with 427 local confirmed cases and 1,662 asymptomatic cases appearing through regular mass testing. Many cities are tightening restrictions and Covid checks, including the large cities of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Many more people are being ordered to work from home, while some businesses are asked to suspend operations until the risks of spreading are ruled out in neighboring areas. Social media reported panic-buying of goods following reports of sudden lockdown notices in Shanghai. Furthermore, the state-run People’s Daily repeated a message today that China must adhere to the zero-Covid policy, indicating the need to keep the policy in the near-term. The paper stated that the policy is sustainable and the best for China’s situation, dashing hopes that a moderated policy would come out of the meeting of Congress next week. That doesn’t bode well for the economic well-being of Chinese citizens, or for China’s economy, adding to this morning’s cloud hanging over Wall Street.

Ukraine farmers have planted 1.8 million hectares of winter grains thus far, which is 38% of the forecast area, which is roughly 20% lower than last year’s levels. However, some private analysts within Ukraine think that plantings will fall far further than 20% amid the difficulties of farming in a war-torn country. Winter wheat planted acreage is currently at 41% of expected acreage, while barley is at 23% and rye at 57%. This year’s corn harvest is in the very early stages amid some unconfirmed reports of disappointing yields. Export shipments through the grain corridor from the three approved ports totals 1.3 million metric tons so far this month on 64 vessels. The total included 458K MT of corn and 592K MT of wheat. Each ship approaching Ukraine to load up with agricultural products must first be inspected by Turkey at Istanbul, but that is a very slow process. As such, trade reports indicate that roughly 100 ships are backed up waiting to be inspected, providing a bottleneck for the entire export process. Meanwhile, reports emerged today that Russia is looking at lifting export quotas for wheat. That’s not a surprise, considering the size of this year’s crop, and Russia’s need for cash to support the war, but it did contribute to the overnight price weakness.

Grain and oilseed traders are also focused on tomorrow’s monthly USDA WASDE crop report. The trade is split on whether to expect USDA to continue with smaller yields for corn and soybeans, or whether we’ll see a bounce on better-than-expected yields. The bias in the trade is slightly smaller yields, but this leaves the market perhaps a bit more vulnerable to a surprise in either direction. Grain prices pulled back following yesterday’s big gains, but this continues to be a market that is driven by headlines, with a close eye on developments in Ukraine. That said, the margin for error is very small this year – especially for corn – which will have traders closely watching tomorrow’s numbers from USDA.

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Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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