Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 18

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Mon, 18 Sept 2023, 12:44

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller, Senior Market Intelligence Analyst

September 18 – Dow Jones Industrials remain range-bound in general but futures are inching higher this morning ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee September meeting today and tomorrow. Wall Street is hoping we’re at the peak of the interest rate increases and that the Fed will start to pivot without losing its grip on inflation; trade estimates are at 99% (almost unanimous) that rates remain unchanged upon the conclusion of the meeting tomorrow afternoon. More importantly, the trade still does see a 31% chance of another rate hike at the next policy meeting in November. Actual government data from last week doesn’t support the equities market optimism – higher-than-expected prints came in for both the CPI and PPI data last week, suggesting inflation has yet to be completely “tamed”, and the Fed will likely continue to tread carefully as to not repeat past mistakes.

Jeep maker Stellantis on Saturday said they’d offer a 21% pay increase to its union workers over the course of the contracts, including an immediate 10% pay raise; that’s in line with proposals from Ford and General Motors to the UAW. However, the United Auto Workers are seeking a 40% hourly pay raise and a reduced 32-hour work week along with other demands. The major auto companies have all picked up talks with union officials by today, but the market will be watching for progress in the coming week or so, or the threat of further strike activities could increase.

WTI crude oil values are rallying again to open the week, up around another buck per barrel today after prices surged easily past the $90/bbl mark Friday; WTI has added over $20/bbl since the end of June and are approaching their highest levels in a year. U.S. crude oil stocks did rebound in last week’s DOE summary but that comes after a long period of declines, with inventories near the bottom of recent year’s range at this point in the season. Saudi Arabia and Russia are sticking with voluntary supply cuts from earlier this month, but if prices continue to rally towards that magic $100/bbl level it will stimulate output, both domestically in shale oil production and globally.

Graphics below are courtesy of our lead forecaster Commodity Weather Group over the weekend; they see no real retreat in the normal to above-normal temperature pattern as we head into August, with dry conditions aiding early harvest activities this week but good rains ahead for the western and central belt (mostly this weekend into the 6-10 day time frame early next week) to slow the campaign. Those rains could aid late soybean filling in some areas and shouldn’t put a dent in the harvest campaign long-term, with 11-15 day maps moving those rains back out to the west. The trade will look for anecdotal yield reports in the meantime, but harvest pressure lingers to start this week with demand problems across the board equally problematic for the bulls, if not more so.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 6

August 6 – Stocks remain quietly mixed at midday as both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones remain just below their fresh all-time highs put in yesterday. This is allowing the VIX to cool to a four-week low below the 15.4 mark, reflecting the collective sigh of relief in the market amid largely better than expected U.S. economic data today. The dollar remains quietly in the green in its relatively tight range this week, trading at 99.9 at the time of writing. Treasuries remain elevated but have cooled from their recent peaks, with 30-year yields trading at 5.189%, 10-year yields trading at 4.647%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.229% at midday. Crude oil also remains quietly in the green, with nearby WTI up 2.3% on the day trading near $76.80 and nearby Brent up 2.4% on the day trading near $81.40. The ags remain mixed, with the wheat complex now squarely in the red while corn and soybeans cling to small gains, and the livestock complex largely pushes lower.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 15:18

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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