Perspective: Morning Commentary for September 8

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 08 Sept 2021, 13:36

Perspective: Morning Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

September 8 – Stocks remained under light pressure overnight, as traders contemplate whether the economy can sustain its current growth curve amid modest headwinds coming from several factors. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, after pushing to its highest level since August 20^th just below 20 earlier in the session. The dollar index rallied to another fresh one-week high above 92.7 this morning as demand for greenbacks rises. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 1.36%, pulling back from yesterday’s nearly-two-month highs above 1.38%. Crude oil prices are trading nearly 2% higher after erasing Tuesday’s losses. The Ags are mostly higher in early trade, bouncing back following notable losses on Tuesday as some Gulf export terminals reopen.

Slowing growth is a theme heard around Wall Street this week, following last week’s disappointing monthly jobs report. There were a lot of positives in that report, but Wall Street is largely focused on the small number of jobs created in August, despite a record number of posted job openings. It would seem that the lack of job growth has more to do with the lack of available workers than it does a slowdown in economic growth, or said another way, any slowdown in economic growth may have more to do with the lack of available workers that hinders expansion. This debate also takes place as debate over the Fed’s potential tapering heats up. I’ve previously mentioned comments made by Kansas City Fed president and CEO Esther George about the need to move toward tapering sooner rather than later, after she suggested in recent statements that the Fed should lay out a timeline at this month’s meeting. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard also argued for moving forward with a tapering plan in an interview with the Financial Times this week. The overall product of the above discussion is that economists are downward revising their economic growth forecasts.

Refineries are coming back online quicker than is Gulf crude oil output following Hurricane Ida’s passage. The latest data shows roughly 1 million barrels per day of refinery capacity still offline, although it’s questionable whether those that have returned to operation are operating at full capacity. Yet, shut-in oil production in the Gulf is still down 1.44 mbpd, accounting for 79.3% of the Gulf’s production. Natural gas production losses remain near 1.7 billion cubic feet per day, or 78% of production. Crews have returned to 20 producing platforms and one rig as of Tuesday’s report. The trade will be watching the government’s energy inventory reports closely this week and next to assess the scope of expected draw downs in both crude oil and product inventories, hoping that this will be the only major tropical storm that we need to deal with in the Gulf production region this year.

Grain export activity is slowly ramping up as power is restored and repairs are completed to damaged facilities. I’ve seen reports that Entergy has restored power to up to 80% of New Orleans customers. That includes some grain export terminals, although many in the core terminal area are said to still be waiting. Some grain is being rerouted to other locations, with a couple of export terminals suffering significant damage. Yet, there is still an expectation and hope that overall export demand will not suffer as a result of Hurricane Ida, despite the current disruptions. That’s not a sure thing yet, as the industry still has some challenges ahead of it in getting grain moving, but we remain cautiously optimistic that the longer-term impacts will be minimal on the demand side of the ledger. Getting soybeans to China is probably the most critical component to see move in the near-term. It was good to see another USDA announced flash sale of 3.9 million bushels of U.S. soybeans this morning. It was the first announced sale of soybeans to China since Thursday, after seeing nearly daily announcements for much of August, suggesting that Chinese buyers once again have confidence in U.S. exporters’ ability to deliver.

The markets are actively pricing in expectations that demand will be hurt by the damage done by Hurricane Ida to New Orleans port facilities, but more than that, they are also pricing in expectations of a larger supply. The trade expects modest increases in USDA’s corn and soybean yield estimates when it releases its monthly WASDE crop report on Friday, but adjustments are also expected to USDA’s harvested acreage estimates – especially for corn. That may be the greater concern currently for traders. The USDA WASDE team has access to farmer certification data with its FSA offices that will also be revealed on Friday. FSA released data on August 12^th suggesting that we could see a modest rise in corn and decrease in soybean acres down the road, but it gave no indication on the percent of farmer certifications that had been processed relative to normal for the August report. As such, we do not know if the acreage changes will be reflective of the August data, or something much different, creating uncertainty.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Morning Grain Comments 8-7

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerFri, 07 Aug 2026, 11:56

Grains & Oilseeds

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