Perspective: Morning Commentary January 13

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 13 Jan 2026, 14:26

Today's Perspective Video: Political Pressure & Credit Market Headlines: What Commodities Are Watching

January 13 – Stock futures slipped modestly lower overnight ahead of the release of this morning’s inflation data that plays a key role in future rate cut decisions by the Federal Reserve, while traders also feel the anxiety of elevated geopolitical risks as protests increase in Iran. The VIX is trading near 15 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.17%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.53%. Crude oil prices rallied to fresh eight-week highs on the rising geopolitical risks, while the grain and oilseed markets sought some sense of stabilization following yesterday’s bearishly construed USDA reports.

The consumer price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in December, matching expectations, and matching the upwardly revised number for November. The headline CPI for December rose 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month, but exceeding analyst expectations of 2.6%. The core CPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose 0.2% on the month, matching the previous month, but below analyst expectations of a 0.3% rise. The core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in December, again matching the previous month’s pace, but coming in slightly below the 2.7% pace expected by analysts. Food inflation remained a problem in December, with both food eaten at home and food eaten away from home rising 0.7% on the month, putting them up 2.4% and 4.1% respectively on the year. Gasoline prices fell 0.5% on the month, and were down 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to the limited growth in headline inflation, while fuel oil dropped 1.5% on the month. But natural gas prices rose 4.4% on the month, and rose 10.8% year-on-year. One of the key core inflation items was used vehicles, which fell 1.1% on the month, helping to hold down the core number. Yet, apparel rose 0.6% in December, while shelter costs rose 0.4%, transportation services rose 0.5%, and medical care services rose 0.4%. Wall Street initially interpreted this data as beneficial for the Fed to cut its benchmark interest rate sooner rather than later, with stock futures rallying and Treasury yields falling, but then these markets largely returned to levels they were trading prior to the data release on the realization that the data largely met expectations that were already priced into the market.

President Trump needs to see “uncertainty” decrease this year if he’s going to have any hope of continuing his agenda beyond the midterm elections in November. “Uncertainty” has been high in 2025, largely due to the continued evolution of policy coming out of the White House, including constant changes in tariff announcements, and in evolving geopolitical tensions. I saw tendencies of President Trump trying to reduce volatility around those two issues starting in October, including the handshake trade deal with President Xi of China. However, that volatility returned again recently with the extraction of Venezuelan President Maduro and President Trump’s threats to take action on Iran if it used undue deadly force on protestors there. Iran has done just that, resulting in President Trump Monday evening announcing a 25% import tariff on products coming from any country doing business with Iran. That would be a direct hit on both China and Russia if applied as a blanket policy, along with several other countries. Much of Iran’s oil exports flow to China, while other top trading partners include Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, and India. President Trump is also said to be consulting with his top advisors regarding possible military action. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated in a Reuters story that he believes that “we are now witnessing the final days and weeks of this regime,” speaking of Iran. Protests are largely focused on severe economic hardship in Iran, and they have resulted thus far in at least 2,000 deaths, with nearly 11,000 arrests. One of the risks is that the current leadership will flee to Russia and/or China, leaving a power vacuum that results in far more deaths and instability in the Middle East.

Frankly, Monday’s USDA WASDE crop report appeared to reflect an agency in disarray. USDA-NASS handed the WASDE committee a much larger corn crop than was anticipated, raising final harvested acres for the 2025 crop by 1.3 million, while bumping the yield by another 0.5 bushel to 186.5 bushels per acre. That added 269 million bushels to the size of the crop. In addition, NASS backwardly adjusted last year’s corn and soybean crop sizes upward, while also adjusting last year’s ending stocks numbers upward as well. Soybeans saw modest increases in acreage harvested, while the yield held constant. The WASDE group scrambled to account for all of the changes in last year’s balance sheets, as well as this year’s balance sheets, seeking to make the increase in final ending stocks estimates as small as possible, especially for corn. That led it to increase this year’s corn feed usage by 100 million bushels, after lowering last year’s feed usage once again. As such, it has this year’s feed usage up by 746 million bushels from last year’s level, even though we’re feeding fewer animals with the border with Mexico closed for the foreseeable future. I don’t recall seeing this many changes to the previous marketing year’s balance sheet in January of the following year in the four decades that I’ve been in this business. The drain in analyst experience due to the buyout offers may be taking its toll. Yet, these are the numbers that the market will trade.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 3

August 3 – The Dow Jones is up over 500 points as of the time of this writing, right in the range of the record high close just under a month ago; the marketplace at least appreciates the rhetoric from Trump calling for negotiations, and WTI crude oil dropping by around $5/bbl. The S&P and NASDAQ are also up 1% or better on the session, while treasury yields suffer chop lower on the day, with the ten-year note down slightly at 4.69% at this time.

Mike CastleMon, 03 Aug 2026, 15:10

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