Perspective: Morning Commentary January 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 14 Jan 2026, 14:38

Today's Perspective Video: Political Pressure & Credit Market Headlines: What Commodities Are Watching

January 14 – Today may be the day that the Supreme Court rules on the legality of President Trump’s use of the emergency powers act to implement tariffs, leaving the market a bit on edge as we start the day, similar to this past Friday which turned out to be a false alarm. Nonetheless, we know that it will come soon, if not today. The VIX is trading at a nearly four-week high near 17 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 99.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.52%. Crude oil prices rose to a fresh 11-week high this morning as geopolitical risks continue to rise in Iran, while the grain and oilseed sector was mostly higher as well in overnight trade.

Retail sales rose 3.6% year-on-year in November, reflecting stronger pre-holiday buying than expected. Headline retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month in November, representing a sharp improvement from the -0.1% seen in October, and well above the 0.2% growth expected by analysts. Retail sales minus vehicles rose 0.5% in November, up from a downwardly revised 0.2% in October, and above analyst expectations of 0.3% growth. Retail sales minus both vehicles and gas rose 0.4% in November, matching the previous month’s growth, but twice the 0.2% pace expected by analysts. Today’s numbers reflect a stronger consumer market than the consumer surveys would seem to indicate. Retail sales data for December is expected to be released tomorrow morning.

Inflation at the wholesale level was a bit hotter than expected in November, as reflected in today’s data release that was delayed due to the government’s efforts to catch up after the shutdown. The headline producer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in November, down from 0.3% previously, and below analyst expectations of 0.3%. However, the headline PPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in November, up from 2.7% previously, and up from analyst expectations of 2.7%. The core PPI that excludes the food and energy sectors rose 0.2% on the month in November, up from 0.1% previously, but matching expectations. The core PPI rose 3.0% year-on-year in November, up from 2.6% previously. The PPI excluding food, energy and trade services rose 0.2% on the month in November, while rising 3.5% year-on-year. Today’s numbers are not a game changer for the markets, but they will need to be monitored as we anticipate the December data.

Protests continue in Iran, although recent government efforts to squelch the demonstrations do appear to have reduced the level of protests somewhat. A human rights group says that it has verified the deaths of 2,403 protestors thus far, along with 147 government-affiliated persons. The group also reports 18,137 arrests, with some of those arrested expected to face execution. President Trump threatened to hit Iran directly if it used excessive lethal force on the protestors. It’s widely believed that President Trump has decided to take action, although it is still unclear what that action will look like. Iran has reportedly cut off direct diplomatic communications with the United States, but it has communicated to neighboring countries that it will attack U.S. military positions in those countries if the United States does strike. The protests started the last week of December over dire economic conditions within Iran, providing the greatest threat to the current regime in recent history, although intelligence sources suggest that a collapse of power is not imminent. Nonetheless, the situation threatens to destabilize the Middle East, if not at least Iran itself which is a notable exporter of crude oil and nitrogen fertilizer. Crude oil prices moved higher on Tuesday after President Trump posted on social media that protestors should keep protesting, and that “help is on the way.” Iranian crude oil loadings are currently estimated at roughly 750K barrels per day, down about 100K from December. Iran exports roughly 4.5 million metric tons of urea fertilizer per year.

Chinese exports to the United States fell 30% on the year in December after being down nearly that much in November and being down 20% year-on-year in 2025. However, Chinese exports overall were up 6.6% year-on-year, according to data released by China. China reports that its traded surplus added another $114 billion in December, after it topped $1 trillion for the first time in November. These are pretty rosy numbers for a country who’s manufacturing sector is struggling. China imported 8 mmt of soybeans in December, roughly matching the previous year. Expected arrivals in January and February will be 5.1 and 4.5 mmt respectively, based on shipping data and cargo booking, which would result in the two-month arrivals being down 4 mmt from the previous year’s pace. As such, China offered 1.13 mmt of reserve soybeans at auction this week, with all of it quickly grabbed by crushers. Roughly 2 mmt has already been offered, with another 2 mmt expected to be offered in the next few weeks, filling the gap while waiting for new-crop Brazilian supplies, while also making room for recently purchased U.S. soybeans that will be going into the reserve. Cash sources suggest that China has purchased nearly 11 mmt of soybeans in the current year, with roughly 1 mmt more of purchases expected.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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