Perspective: Morning Commentary January 15

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 15 Jan 2026, 14:20

Guest Commentary by Mike Castle

Lead Market Intelligence Project Manager

January 15 – Stock futures are pointing to a positive open, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the way up following much better-than-expected earnings from chipmaker TSMC (more on that below). The dollar is pushing higher to start the day, making a fresh six-week high amid this morning’s strong U.S. economic data, signaling less incentive for the Fed to cut rates. Treasuries are narrowly in the green this morning, with 10-year yields trading just below 4.16% and 2-year yields trading just below 3.55%. Crude oil sharply reversed course following President Trump’s comments yesterday afternoon that signaled a potential easing of threats of U.S. military intervention in Iran amid the country’s ongoing turmoil that had helped push WTI prices to a nearly three-month high earlier in the session. Reports of the U.S. and U.K. withdrawing personnel from the region and the closure of Iranian airspace raised fears of impending military action, but tensions appear to be easing this morning, allowing the nearby WTI to fall roughly 3% at the time of writing to hang closer to the $59/barrel mark. Meanwhile, the ags are looking to start the session quietly higher.

First-time jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 198k in the week ending January 10^th, sharply below expectations of a rise to 215K and marking the second-lowest weekly reading in the past two years. The week prior was also revised down slightly to 207K from the 208K initially reported. Continuing claims also fell, coming in at 1.884M, below the average estimate of 1.893M. As with initial claims, continuing claims for the week prior were also lowered to 1.903M from the 1.914M previously reported. This helped push the four-week moving average down to 205K, the lowest print in almost exactly two years. This morning’s report points to a healthier-than-expected labor market—good news for the U.S. economy, but potentially bad news for traders hoping for a more dovish Fed in 2026.

The U.S. manufacturing sector showed unexpected strength this morning with both the New York and Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Indexes surging higher. The New York Fed’s Manufacturing Index rose to 7.7 in January, a return to expansion after December’s contractionary -3.7 reading and marking a much sharper than expected rebound versus the average analyst estimate of rising narrowly above neutral. Similarly, the Philadelphia Fed’s index returned to expansionary territory at 12.6 in January, a sharp reversal from three consecutive months of contraction, including -8.8 in December, and well above analyst estimates of a moderate improvement to -1.

Taiwanese chip giant TSMC blew past earnings expectations in the fourth quarter, rising 35% versus the same quarter in the year prior and marking a fresh record high. The company also provided a more upbeat outlook for 2026 as well, helping to potentially ease some jitters in the tech sector amid ongoing concerns about lofty AI-driven valuations. This also comes as a Taiwanese trade team makes their way to D.C. today to meet with U.S. officials for ongoing negotiations to lower the current 20% tariff that Taiwan faces, reportedly aiming for 15%. Expectations are that this would also include an announcement of additional investment in manufacturing facilities in the U.S., though TSMC declined to comment on whether they will commit more than the $165B they’ve already pledged.

Brazil’s Conab released their updated production estimates this morning, cutting the country’s soybean crop to 176.12 MMT, down roughly 1 MMT from their December estimate but still easily representing a fresh all-time high. It’s interesting to see them move in the opposite direction of USDA, who on Monday upped their own estimate for Brazilian soybean production by 3 MMT to now sit at 178 MMT. Conab also made a slight reduction to their Brazil soybean export estimate, now seen at 111.8 MMT. Again, this is a move in the opposite direction of USDA who pegged their estimate at 114 MMT on Monday’s report. Conab sees Brazilian corn production well above USDA, however, leaving their estimate close to unchanged from the month prior at 138.87 MMT versus USDA’s current 131 MMT estimate. While much of the focus this week has been on U.S. domestic balance sheets following Monday’s data dump from USDA, it’s important to keep in mind the outside pressure of a potential fourth consecutive record South American soybean crop, as illustrated in the graphic below. Eyes will also be on South American weather to confirm these production levels, with portions of all the listed countries below expected to see a heatwave in the 11-15-day window that could be damaging for some of the dry spots.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

August 3 – Equities futures are pointing higher to open the week and month, still in range of recent record highs and flush with optimism that the U.S. and others will start to negotiate with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz. A busy week is on tap with earnings reports and jobs data, among other economic releases. Crude oil is down over $5 per barrel and nearing in on three-week lows. The dollar is only slightly lower this morning but at its own month-and-a half low, while the U.S. ten-year note is also slightly on the low side at 4.68. The VIX index is rebounding a bit today after a sharp slide into the end of last week, just above 16.

Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

Grains & Oilseeds

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