Perspective: Morning Commentary January 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 07 Jan 2026, 14:46

Today's Perspective Video: China and Venezuela - The Hidden Connection

January 7 – It was another mixed night for stock futures ahead of this morning’s private sector jobs report, and ahead of Friday’s big government jobs report. The VIX is again trading near 15 this morning, while the dollar index trades near 98.6. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.14%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.46%. Crude oil prices are near unchanged, after initially trading to nearly three-week lows overnight, while the grain and oilseed markets found solid buying interest overnight, led by double-digit gains in soybeans.

The private sector added 41K jobs in December, according to this morning’s ADP report, which is a notable improvement from the 29K jobs lost in November, although it still came in below the average analyst estimate of gains of 47K. How you see this data depends on the filter through which you look at the data. On the one hand, it was a marked improvement from the previous month, but on the other hand, it was still a sluggish number. The average trade guess for Friday’s government report is for it to show that the economy added 55K jobs in December, with the private sector accounting for all of those additions, with the unemployment rate staying unchanged at 4.6%. Wall Street chooses to look at this morning’s report as a smaller rebound in job creation than expected, justifying another rate cut sooner rather than later.

The United States seized a Russian-flagged oil tanker in the North Atlantic this morning, according to wire service reports. The ship was reportedly one of the shadow fleet ships transporting sanctioned oil from Venezuela that was able to escape efforts to stop it following its departure from there. It reportedly changed its name from the Bella 1 to the Marinera and switched to a Russian flag. At least three other tankers in the shadow fleet are believed to have adopted Russian flags in recent days as well, after previously sailing under the flags of Comoros and Guyana. The seizure further adds to existing tensions between Russia and the United States as President Trump seeks to bring peace to Ukraine. The United States began seizing shadow fleet ships transporting sanctioned Venezuelan oil, while also using its military to extract Venezuelan President Maduro to face drug and weapons charges in New York. Venezuelan top officials accused the United States of using the actions to steal its oil, while the U.S. returned the accusation that Venezuela stole U.S. oil when it nationalized the oil industry there, taking assets from U.S. companies over the past half century. CNBC reported this morning that oil sales from Venezuela will continue as sanctions are gradually lifted, with the United States getting more than 50 million barrels from the country. This provides evidence that the Trump Administration has some level of coordination with the Venezuelan government following the weekend raid that extracted Maduro.

Taiwan remains a potential flashpoint that risks escalating trade tensions again between China and the United States. Taiwan’s ruling party DPP proposed a change to Taiwan law governing relations with Mainland China, renaming it as “Taiwan and the People’s Republic of China Relations Act. The proposed changes would remove the phrase “prior to national unification” from its language, while also removing verbiage referring to territory on both sides of the Taiwan Strait as “regions.” The altered wording would represent another step toward seeking total independence in the eyes of China, which would have further angered China’s leadership that has promised “reunification.” The proposal failed to advance. China also took steps this week to block the export of all products to Japan that could have a dual use for both commercial and defense after Japan made statements offering military support to Taiwan. That was followed by a $11.1 billion arms sales to Taiwan by the United States. The combined actions resulted in the biggest round of live-fire war games to date surrounding the island nation over the holidays, in which China demonstrated its ability to isolate Taiwan by blocking access from other countries that might support it. Many analysts believe that China will take decisive action on Taiwan in 2027, but I would warn against expecting China to act at a time when everyone expects it to act, and it certainly wouldn’t surprise me to see that timetable moved forward. The United States would be obligated to respond at that point, with trade disruptions highly likely.

China’s Vice Premier Liu Guozhong called for concerted efforts to protect the nation’s winter wheat crop from bitter cold and drought in comments he made on Tuesday, as reported by state media today. He called for actions to closely monitor the crop’s growth and to protect it from adverse weather, noting that the crop’s condition is currently weak in some areas. Such statements are not unusual in China, but it does reflect a level of heightened concern regarding this year’s crop. More notable is the fact that China made another purchase of U.S. soybeans yesterday despite rising tensions over Taiwan and Venezuela, reflecting President Xi Jinping’s desire to walk a fine line of maintaining trade relations during times of elevated tensions in order to help with his country’s economic recovery. That said, the Taiwan issue is likely the biggest potential risk to that relationship.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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