Perspective: Morning Commentary March 11

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 11 Mar 2026, 13:02

March 11 – It’s day #12 of the Iran war, and the focus on the Strait of Hormuz increases as energy and fertilizer hauling ships continue to largely avoid the passage. This morning’s data release included February inflation numbers that largely reflect conditions ahead of the start of the Iranian war. Stock futures traded both sides of unchanged overnight, although they are currently leaning weaker on the session. The VIX is trading just below 26 at this hour, reflecting elevated levels of anxiety on Wall Street, although it remains well off its Monday session high near 35. The dollar index is trading near 99.1 as it continues to trend higher. Yields on 10-year Treasuries also continue to trend higher, as they hover around 4.19% this morning, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.62%. Crude oil prices are currently trading near $88 per barrel, while the grain and oilseed markets are solidly higher to start the day as inflationary pressures alter the level at which we manage supply and demand.

The headline consumer price index rose 0.3% on the month in February, up from 0.2% in January. The headline CPI rose 2.4% year-on-year in February, matching the pace seen in January. The core CPI that excludes the more volatile food and energy sectors rose 0.2% on the month in February, down from 0.3% in January. Core CPI rose 2.5% on the year in February, matching what we saw in January. Most significantly, all of the above numbers matched what was already expected by analysts. But keep in mind that these numbers basically provide the foundation now on which the March and April numbers will build as energy prices surge higher, making it very likely that we will have one, two or more months of higher inflation numbers, depending on when oil begins to flow at its normal pace through the Strait of Hormuz once again.

Breaking down this morning’s numbers found that fuel oil prices jumped 11.1% on the month, especially at the end of the month. Gasoline prices were up 0.8% on the month, although the March numbers will surely be higher when they are reported next month. Food at home and away from home rose 0.4% and 0.3% respectively on the month. Medical care services rose 0.6% on the month, while apparel rose 1.3% on the month. New vehicle prices were flat in February, while used car prices fell 0.4% on the month. Shelter prices rose by just 0.2% on the month, providing some good news for the service sector, where inflation has been sticky in recent years.

The Strait of Hormuz largely remains closed this morning. There is no Iranian blockade – its navy sits on the bottom of the ocean. Yet, Iran has effectively created enough fear over passage due to its ability to strike tankers with missiles and/or drones that insurance rates have made passage impractical. There are unconfirmed reports that a bulk carrier tried to pass earlier today, but it was hit and the crew evacuated. Several tankers with Chinese flags have reportedly been allowed to pass through the Strait. Rumors began emerging Tuesday that Iran was planning to mine the Strait, leading to news reports this morning of the U.S. military striking boats that it believed could be involved in the mining. As of yet, there is little reported evidence that Iran has been successful in placing any mines in the Strait. The White House has promised to escort tankers through the Strait, but it must first have those military assets available to conduct that service. Currently they are involved in the war itself. Meanwhile, oil storage facilities are filling up across the region, resulting in wells being shut down. Restarting those wells will take time when this is over – likely weeks - suggesting that global output will be reduce for some weeks at least going forward. All of this suggests that we will see a notable inflation increase in March, and perhaps April, when that data is released, on top of this morning’s inflation numbers for February. The question then is, does that spur additional money flow into the grain and oilseed sector, along with energy, as it has tended to do in the past?

The Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve will meet to consider is monetary policy next week. The CME FedWatch gives less than a 1% chance this morning that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate at that meeting. It gives just an 11% chance that the Fed will cut its rate at the April meeting. In fact, the market is pricing in just one, maybe two, rate cuts this year. That may be an optimistic view. The Fed now finds itself in a difficult position of rising inflation and a soft jobs market – often seen as stagflation. It made the mistake of calling inflation transitory following the pandemic, and we still haven’t seen inflation drop back down to the 2% mandated level. Do they dare use the “transitory” word again this time, even though that remains the hoped for outcome? The Federal Reserve is not expected to change its interest rate near-term, ahead of a change in the Chair and before knowing how long the conflict in Iran lasts. That pushes the decision into this summer when I think all parties involved hope that the conflict with Iran is resolved, oil is flowing again, and the economy humming. Such a scenario could allow for another rate cut. But continuation of the Iran conflict to that point would likely result sustained inflation, creating more challenges for the economy, and for the Federal Reserve.

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Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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