Perspective: Morning Commentary March 12

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 12 Mar 2026, 13:01

Guest Commentary by Matt Zeller

Market Intelligence – Senior Grains Analyst

March 12 – Dow Jones Futures are pointing towards a third straight losing session, a bit steeper today with futures indicating a 400+ point decline for the benchmark equities index. The NASDAQ and S&P 500 are looking at sub-1% losses as well. Crude oil is moving back towards previous highs with fighting in the Gulf intensifying, and no real end in sight – supplies are still stuck there, unable to flow out towards increasingly-desperate end users. Treasury yields continue to move higher today, with the benchmark 10-year up over a basis point to 4.222%. The marketplace has quickly flipped from interest rate cut discussions to concerns of long-term energy price shock and its implications…

WTI crude oil is on the way back towards Monday’s blowout highs, after the subsequent early-week decline; crude is back up $6+/bbl after a strong session yesterday, after Iraq and Oman closed oil terminals this morning. Three oil tankers were attacked and left burning off Iraq’s coast and drone attacks continued to cause casualties across the region. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with the IEA calling this war “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil mark”. Nothing likely ready in terms of U.S. Naval escorts or international reserve releases – supposedly around 400 million barrels, of which the U.S. has agreed to release 172 million barrels from the SPR - until around the end of the month.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending March 7 came in at 213k, right near the average trade estimate of 215k and 214k the week prior (itself revised just 1k higher this week). Continuing claims for the week ending Feb 28 also nearly matched expectations at 1850k (versus the 1849k guess), down from 1871k the week prior (revised up from 1868k). On positive notes, U.S. housing starts exceeded the 1341k estimate at 1487k for the month of January, up from 1387k in December (revised down from 1404k) and the third straight month-over-month rise. The U.S. trade balance shrunk as well, to $-54.5 billion in January; that beat the $-66.0b estimate and $-72.9b in December (though that was revised lower from $-70.3b previously). Both those economic data sets are positive development for the U.S. economy, with the shrinking trade balance in particular suggesting stronger exports of goods and services.

We had seen concerns on social media yesterday regarding a lack of bids and offers in the Brazilian soybean market, and last night we found out why. Cargill reportedly stopped buying soybeans from local farmers because it is having trouble exporting them to China, thanks to new phytosanitary regulations dropped on by the government early last week; and they reportedly paused shipments to China (which buys 80% of the country’s soybeans) due to many loads not complying with new stricter regulations on weeds and pests, and thus sanitary certificates to set sail are not being issued. Brazilian brokers are claiming that Cargill has redirected some cargoes away from China, while Chinese sources say shipments are “proceeding normally”. To that end, Brazil is unlikely to let the export flow to China hit a snag at this peak point in the shipping season. U.S. exporters sold just 16.8 million bushels of soybeans on the week ending March 5, slightly above the previous two weekly totals but on the low end of the trade estimate range; three million bushels of that did go to China, still the leading buyer at right around 400 mbu of U.S. soybeans thus far in 2025/26. Sales to all destinations remain 5% behind the seasonal pace need to reach the USDA target of 1.575 billion bushels – the lowest total (if realized) since 2012/13.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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