Perspective: Morning Commentary March 4

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 04 Mar 2026, 14:39

Today's Perspective Video: Updated Look at Rising Geopolitical Risks

March 4 – The war continues in the Middle East, but the market reaction is easing somewhat this morning. Stock futures pushed higher overnight, while the commodity sector pulled back. The VIX slipped a bit lower to trade near 22 this hour, although that still reflects elevated levels of nervousness on Wall Street. The dollar index pulled back to trade near 98.9 this morning. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.07%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.51%. Crude oil prices are trading near $74 per barrel, or roughly $4 off of yesterday’s high. The grain and oilseed sector was mostly lower overnight. The market seemed to take a collective breath overnight following two days of reacting to the weekend strikes on Iran.

Turkey intercepted an Iranian missile approaching its airspace today, but U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth does not think at this point that the incident is sufficient to trigger a NATO response. The United States continues to work in coordination with Israel in systematically dismantling Iran’s military, and its ability to strike at other nations. Yet, that will take time, and Iran continues to demonstrate its ability to create fear and terror by spinning missiles and drones at targets across the Middle East. Iran seems to be trying to create as much chaos and fear as possible as it suffers considers the inevitable, but that still means a great deal of potential death and destruction for the region. The United States promised on Tuesday to provide cover for shipping companies moving tankers through the Strait of Hormuz – both from a standpoint of backing insurance and also packing military support, while other nations have reportedly stepped up to offer assistance as well. It’s going to take time to restore movement through the Strait, but market fears have eased somewhat. Meanwhile, crude oil and fertilizer output and shipment remains somewhat curtailed across the region due to Iran’s continued strikes. Air travel across the Middle East remains severely disrupted due to the activity. The United States and Israel expect to gain complete air control over Iran within a few days, which should give their forces additional momentum in their efforts to immobilize Iran. The late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei is reportedly emerging as the front runner to replace his father as Iran’s next supreme leader, which doesn’t give any hope of a switch of Iran’s stance.

The outcome of the current conflict has a significant impact on the broader global geopolitical picture. Initially, Iran supplied Russia with fully assembled drones for use against Ukraine, but then it shifted to providing components, while assisting Russia with the manufacture of the drones on its soil, according to the Institute of War. Russia eventually rebranded the Iranian designed drones, and it even began manufacturing some of the components domestically. Nonetheless, the drones continue to play a significant role in Russia’s war on Ukraine. Iran also supplied significant volumes of cheap crude oil to China, while representing a significant Chinese interest in the Middle East. In fact, China has a great deal to lose if the current regime falls in Iran. China’s response thus far has been to walk a fine line of firmly protesting the strike on Iran, while also trying to keep itself from being pulled into the conflict, and while still trying to facilitate President Trump’s visit to Beijing at the end of the month. China has increasingly sought to do business with a number of other Middle East countries who also find themselves victims of Iran’s strikes, and among whom there is growing resistance to Iran’s activities.

China’s “Two Sessions” meetings begin today. The process started in October when Communist Party leadership held its “Fourth Plenum” meeting to develop its five-year plan for China. That plan now provides the framework for this week’s meetings, which will put flesh to the objectives. It is expected to start with a growth target for the current year, likely clustering around 4.5% to 5.0%. We’ll also likely see more details of China’s 15^th five-year plan developed in October, which will drive all of the other discussions at this week’s event. Expect China to put strong emphasis on technological self-reliance and “new productive forces” themes, including AI, advanced manufacturing, robotics, renewables, and supply-chain security. Look for the plan to also emphasize consumption, since President Trump’s sanctions have effectively curtailed its ability to live on export demand alone. Restoring China’s economic health will necessitate strong consumer buying, but that will be difficult when consumer confidence remains just above record lows due to China’s dismal property market. China will also need to address its rapidly growing debt problem, which is a product of trying to prop up its economy – much of which is heavily biased toward local government units.

The grain and oilseed markets remain in a waiting game. Brazil’s soybean harvest is large, and safrinha corn planting is approaching its final stages in Center-West regions of the country, with generally favorable rains. USDA is currently conducting surveys on planting intentions in the United States, as well as quarterly stocks levels, with the results to be reported on March 31. Final biofuel regulations are expected by mid- to late-March.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Morning Grain Comments 8-6

Morning Grain Market Comments - Matt Zeller

Matt ZellerThu, 06 Aug 2026, 11:56

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